End of Day Review 05/19/09

In the afternoon session as the market was making new highs, the $TICK momentum was decreasing, and the Financials was showing weakness. In the end, the sellers had the upper hand.

Charles

Morning Review 05/19/09

At around 1020 ET, all indicators turned Green as the market was testing the VWAP Line on the bullish side. Also, so far, the market is staying above the yearly open.

The expectation is that we will have a more narrow ranged market today relative to yesterday.

Charles

PreMarket Thoughts 05/19/09

The market is currently above yesterday's High of 908.75, which is an intraday support / resistance point. Sixty Percent of the time during the last two years, the day following a day like yesterday, where the (Today's - Yesterday's Close) difference fell between the +1.0 and +0.5 Standard Deviation range and the (Open-Low) difference was less than 3, close below the previous day's close.

The probability of a negative close increases if the market trades below 908.75 with related markets showing a bearish tendency.

Charles

End of Day Review 05/18/09

It is a good idea to keep track of when the market tends to make major moves.

Charles

Morning Review 05/18/09

Not only was the market not able to close the gap, but it could not quite correct back to the Pivot Line. Just too much demand relative to supply. At 1005 ET, both Energy and Financials along with the 5-minute $TICK were in the Green. Everything turned Green at 1025 ET. Once the market traded above the VWAP after 1021 ET, the VWAP Line became support. Resistance was then Friday's high at 895.50, which has now become support as of this writing. However, going into the European close, we are starting to see a decreasing $TICK momentum.

Charles

A Case For The Bulls

In addition to the Financials making a higher low on Friday, the NASDAQ and Russell 2000 Futures also made a higher low. And, the moving averages of the $TICK and Friday's ES VWAP Line also made higher lows Friday. Selling momentum may be weakening short-term.

Charles

PreMarket Monday OutLook 05/17/09

The situation where the difference between the Close and the Previous Day's Close for the Day Session staying between +0.25 and -0.25 Standard Deviations for two days straight has occurred just 10 times in the past two years.



The data in the chart above shows what has happened the following day after the statistical situation described previously. 60% of the time, the market closed below the previous day's close. Also 60% of the time, the Range was below 20 points with the median being 19, the distance between the High - Open and the Open - Low was below 10 points.



The market is still staying above the 872 level, which is a long term support level and near May's open price.



On Friday, both the ES and Energy markets made a new two-day low, but the Financials did not. If the Financials remain strong relative to the broader market and Energy remains weak, Monday's market may prove to be slightly negative, but may not go very far, unless the 872 support level is broken on high volume.

Charles