First Hour Market Structure 05/28/09

Charles

End of Day Review 05/27/09

Probably as good as it gets. All indicators red, bond market has just closed, market is testing the Pivot Line which is just shy of the 50% correction of the afternoon down trend wave, and a bearish $TICK divergence of a retest of the Pivot Line. The market then continues the down trend.

Charles

Morning Review 05/27/09

The Indicators are suggesting a split and range bound market, which is typical following a wide range day like yesterday.

Using $TICK momentum changes is a good tool for scalping trades in a range bound market. The Blue line is simply the 1 - Period SMA of (H+L+C) / 3 for each $TICK bar. The vertical lines show times when the futures were testing lows and highs while the $TICK blue line was showing a possible reversal in momentum. Fading these tests were profitable scalp trades.

Charles

PreMarket Observations 05/27/09

We are back to testing the resistance area between 920 and 915.

Following two days where the (Today's Close - Yesterday's Close Day Session Difference) was below zero then increased to between the +1 and +0.5 Standard Deviations produces a day that has a 51% chance of closing below the previous day's close, and 49% chance of closing even or positive relative to the previous day's close. On positive days, the market closed up an average +11.75 points, and on negative days, closed down an average -15.5 points. The average of all data is -2.25 points.

Charles

First Hour Review 05/26/09

After a bearish gap opening, the market traded up to the Pivot Line, which is normal 70% of the time. However, the market then traded past Friday's High as a result of a huge increase in Consumer Confidence. Friday's High is now support.

Charles

Some PreMarket Bearish Indications 05/26/09

So far, the market is staying above the 872 - 875 area. However, the series of decending triangles is bearish. The market is now trading just below the small support area created last Thursday, which is now a resistance area. If the market closes below 872, it will probably test 833.

Charles

Using TradeStation Data in Excel

Above is the TradeStation Window that I like to down load data into Excel. This will give you Date, Time, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume, Open Interest, Today's Close - Yesterday's Close Difference with the Standard Deviations, High - Open Difference and Open - Low Difference.



You can get the above window by clicking in the Tool Bar "View" and then "Data Window" and then clicking the "Show All" icon. Then save the window as a text file on your hard drive.

In Excel, you can down load the text file into the spreadsheet by clicking in the Tool Bar, "Data", "Get External Data" and "Import Text File". You then have to go through 3 Steps (see the 3 windows above) to down load the data.

Above is the result spreadsheet.

The TCYC column is the data "Today's Close - Yesterday's Close" from the TradeStation Window. Friday we had a situation where this difference kept decreasing for three days straight with the fourth day (Friday) being an increase in this difference but still below zero. So to find similar situations in the last three years and determine what the next day statistically looks like, I wrote the conditional statement that is shown in the above window in Column R.

Basically, the Conditional Statement reads, If(Condition is True, Do This, Else Leave Cell Blank). So if the TCYC Column decreases in value for three days, and the value on the fourth day increases but is still less than zero, type in the TCYC value for day Five else leave blank.

I'm still using a version of Excel that is older than the 2007 version. The 2007 version ignores blank cells, but older versions do not. So I have to accumulate the results without the blank cells before I can calculate the Average, Median and so on.

The results above show that the above situation has occurred 9 times in the past 3 years. 67% of those times, the next day closed even or higher than the previous day on average of 2.25 points.

Actually, the average for bullish days is 8.5 points and -7.25 points for bearish days.

Charles