Saturday, June 2, 2012

S&P 500 Weekend Review 06/02/12


The S&P 500 hasn't quite completed a 50% correction of its last up leg on the weekly chart. However, with Friday's close below the 200-day moving average, we may see the index go to 1249 and complete the technical correction.

On the ES futures daily chart, we see that the market is still in a down trend with its 20-day moving average attracting sellers.


Wednesday, May 23, 2012

As Good As It Gets 05/23/12

A short trade set up this morning is about as good as it gets.
  1. Momentum is bearish on the 1, 5 and 15 minutes charts
  2. The advance - decline line is below -1000 (top chart)
  3. The $TICK is in a down trend ( top charts)
  4. The market is below S1
  5. We get a small correction back to S1 and the 20 bar SMA for a short entry (top chart)
  6. Sellers send the market to S2

Friday, May 18, 2012

S&P 500 Index May Tumble 05/18/12

Today's 15 minute ES Futures chart, top chart above, shows two three-wave moves between the Pivot and S1, both calculated using 24-hour data. Bears still control the market.

On the S&P 500 index Weekly chart above, we can see that a 50% correction of the last up wave is around 1249. So far, the market isn't falling as fast as it did last year following a topping, Head and Shoulders formation. We will have to wait and see if a 50% correction entices some long term buying.


Saturday, May 12, 2012

Morning Bulls Crumble In Afternoon Trading 05/12/12

The quick climb from S2 to R1 in Friday morning's trading seemed a little suspicious to me. For one thing, Friday's Advance - Decline Line high was below Thursday's low (second chart above). This is not a good indication of bullish momentum. So, in the afternoon trading, the market crumbled back down below S1.

The S&P 500 index is trying to stay above its 100-day moving average, but it is having difficulties trading above April's lows. So, the market is staying in a bearish mood for the moment.

Charles A. Pennison

Thursday, May 10, 2012

ES Futures 5 Minute Chart With Two Simple Moving Averages

I've been watching the 24 and 38 bar moving averages on the ES Futures 5 minute Globex charts for some time now. Traders must be keying on these two averages since the market frequently turns on tests of these averages.

The above charts are examples of wavy, up trending, down trending and market reversal days. Another thing interesting about these two averages on the 5 minute chart is that the market turns occur near a 50% corrective move on a three-wave formation.

Charles A. Pennison

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

ES Futures 60-Minute Chart Morning 05/01/12

On the 60-minute chart above, the ES Futures is trying to decide if it wants to stay above or below the 1390 level. The market is currently attracting some bulls as it lifts off of a double bottom formation. However, the market is also stalling as it starts to test all-time highs.

The month of May in the last 5 years is a mixed bag. 2 of the last 5 years were a bullish May, and 3 of the last 5 years were a bearish May.


Monday, April 23, 2012

ES Futures May Test April 10th Low 04/23/12

From Bloomberg: "European stocks fell after reports showed manufacturing contracted in the euro area and China and as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte failed to reach an agreement with a coalition party over austerity measures. Asian stocks and U.S. futures also slid."