Monday, October 31, 2011

ES Futures Morning Session 10/31/11

The S&P 500 Index Advance - Decline line and TRIN are definitely indicating selling in the market. S2 and the 0930 ET open are acting as resistance.

The S&P 500 Index is back below its 200-day moving average, and is resistance.


ES Futures Break Below Friday's NR7 Low - Morning 10/31/11

The ES Futures is breaking to the down side of Friday's NR7 day low. The 10-day average may provide support over the next few days. We have a FOMC Announcement Wednesday afternoon.


Friday, October 28, 2011

ES Futures Morning Session 10/28/11

The Pivot line and the Globex Low line was where traders made their decisions this morning. The Globex low held as support, while the Pivot first held resistance, then support and back to resistance. This is typical of a narrow range day, which normally follows a wide range day like yesterday.

Both the S&P 500 Advance - Decline line and the TRIN turned slightly more bullish as the morning progressed.


Thursday, October 27, 2011

S&P 500 Index Closes Above Its 200-Day Moving Average 10/27/11

The S&P 500 Index has closed above its 200-day moving average for the first time since 8/1/11.


ES Futures Morning Session 10/27/11

After some profit taking, we got a bullish TICK divergence about two and a half points above R2. We still have resistance at the 0930 ET open and the Globex High.

The S&P 500 Advance - Decline line is just above 400, and the TRIN became more bullish as the futures price approached R2.

The S&P 500 index is testing its 200-day moving average, which is providing resistance.


Europe agrees on eurozone emergency deal

Bloomberg also reports that Stocks, US Futures Gain on EU Debt-Crisis Deal.

European leaders agree to expand a bailout fund to contain the debt crisis. "The euro region's bailout fund will be leveraged by four or five times, and investors have agreed to a voluntary writedown of 50% on Greek debt."


Wednesday, October 26, 2011

ES Futures Morning Session 10/26/11

The S&P 500 Advance - Decline data was positive at the open. However, the TRIN was still indicating that there was more volume with declining stocks than with advancing stocks. There just was not enough advancing volume to propel the market past the R1 - Globex High resistance.

The support level of S1 attracted some advancing volume. This level is also near the 10-day moving average for the ES Futures. If the market can continue to close above this level, the market may continue its bullish advance.


Tuesday, October 25, 2011

ES Futures Trading On European News 10/25/11

The first 45 minutes of trading was a thin and volatile market. But even in a fast pace and thin market, the market still reversed at exactly S2, which also happens to be near the 8/31/11 high and a support level. The Globex low is the current resistance level. So far, the market is in a bearish mode as indicated by the S&P 500 Advance Decline data.

The market seems to be trading on European news. Here is an except from a Bloomberg report this morning:

"Stocks extended losses after the U.K. government said a meeting of EU finance ministers scheduled for tomorrow was canceled. They pared some of their decline as it was confirmed that summits of the 27 EU leaders and 17 euro-area heads of government will take place in Brussels as planned."

So the market tumbles on a canceled meeting, and rallies a little on the continuation of plans of a summit. I hope everyone realizes that no matter what the politicians do, the debt crisis will be with us for years and years. There's no quick fix or magic solution here.


Monday, October 24, 2011

ES Futures Morning Session 10/24/11

The Globex overnight high at first was resistance, but the bulls kept the market above R1. R2 was a little shaky as support at first, but the bulls once again entered the market at the Globex high, and moved the market past R2, which is currently acting as support.


Saturday, October 22, 2011

Tom McClellan Sees Rising Stock Market 10/22/11

Bloomberg reported several days ago that Tom McClellan, edito of the McClellan Report, sees the stock market rising until February. McClellan states in the interview that "sustained pressure of money is trying to find its way into the market."

The ES futures on Friday made a new higher high since the high of August 4th. And, the S&P 500 index closed above its 100-day moving average. The futures have also been able to stay above its 10-day moving average since October 5th. An uptrending market?


Friday, October 21, 2011

ES Futures Morning Report - R2 Pivot - 10/21/11

I find that the 5 minute chart works well when deciding if the Floor Trader Pivots will hold or fail as support or resistance. R2 first held as resistance near 1000 ET, but then its resistance failed near 1015 ET on the above 5-minute ES Futures chart. Currently, it is holding as support.


Thursday, October 20, 2011

Six Days In A Narrow Range 10/20/11

The market is staying within a six day range. Bulls are keeping the market above its 10-day average, and the bears below the August high. Sooner or later the market will bust out of the range.


Wednesday, October 19, 2011

ES Futures Stay Within S1 And R1 10/19/11

The first observation today is that we stayed in a narrow range between the half way points of S1 and R1. However, today was not a NR7 day. Notice how the Pivot line provided support until 1400 ET, in which it became resistance.

The S&P 500 index is now looking at the 100-day moving average as resistance.


Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Floor Trader Pivots On ES Futures Globex Chart 10/18/11

I've placed the Floor Trader Pivots, calculated using the 0900 to 1600 ET time frame, on the ES Futures Globex Chart. Yesterday, the market stalled at R2 and proceeded to lose each support level throughout the day. Last night, S1 is providing support.

On the ES daily chart, the market is still staying above its 10-day moving average.


Saturday, October 15, 2011

ES Futures And S&P 500 Index Weekend Charts 10/15/11

The S&P 500 Index finally closed above its 50-day moving average. However, it is still below the August high and staying in a sideways channel. As the ES futures climbed to the August high, daily range has been trending down. Traders are being cautious as the dreaded third week of October nears. Traders are also awaiting for the unveiling by the end of October of the European plan to tackle their debt crisis.

Good articles on the "Floor Trader Pivots."

Pivot Point Trading Tutorial
What a Professional Floor Trader Taught Me About Trading Pivots
Floor Pivot Trading


Friday, October 14, 2011

ES Futures 10/14/11

Once the market traded below R2 in the second half hour of trading, R2 continued to act as resistance up until the bond market close at 1511 ET. R1 provided support.


ES Futures Trading Higher In Globex Session 10/14/11

The ES Futures is trading above Thursday's high based on good earnings from Google and a 1.1% rise in Retail Sales as reported by the US Census Bureau.

However, the market is still hesitant about trading higher than September's high.


Thursday, October 13, 2011

$TICK Divergences At Support And Resistance Lines 10/13/11

I find that $TICK divergences set up high probability trades when it occurs near support and resistance lines. Today gave us several of these potential trading opportunities. The two that I liked the most are the test near S2 in the morning and the test of the Pivot line in the afternoon.


Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Profit Taking Near September's High 10/12/11

Traders took some short term profits near September's high, which is also near today's R3. We will have to wait and see if the market has enough bullish power to push past the recent short term highs.


ES Futures Rise On European Optimism 10/12/11

During the Globex session last night, the market first tested yesterday's low then shot up past yesterday's high on European market optimism that European leaders are moving on a plan to handle their debt problems.

Currently, the market has found resistance just above R2 and is trying to find support near R1 and yesterday's high.


Tuesday, October 11, 2011

ES Futures NR7 Day 10/11/11

Today is another NR7 day, which means that today's range is the most narrow of the last 7 days. It is not uncommon to have a narrow range following a strong trend day. Watch for the direction of the break of today's range.


Monday, October 10, 2011

ES Futures Remain Bullish 10/10/11

With the help of European politicians, the market broke past the high of Friday's range. The market remained above R2 most of the day.


Sunday, October 9, 2011

Germany And France Agree On Europe Bank Bailout 10/09/11

The leaders of Germany and France said that they have reached an agreement on strengthening Europe's bank sector. It was further announced that a "comprehensive response" to the eurozone's debt crisis will be finalized by the end of the month, which will include a detailed plan to recapitalize the banks. The proposal must also be discussed with other European leaders before elaborating further on the plan's details.

It will be interesting to see if this agreement affects the future's market tonight and tomorrow.


Saturday, October 8, 2011

Weekend ES Futures And S&P 500 Index Charts 10/08/11

If the market trades down to the 1100 level and then goes back up, we would have a head and shoulders pattern.

Friday had the most narrow range of the last 7 days, which makes it a NR7 day. The market may trend in the direction of a breakout of Friday's range.

The S&P 500 Index is still below its 50-day moving average.

US Economic Data links:

Economic Research from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank

Economic News from the Bureau of Labor Statistics


Friday, October 7, 2011

50-Day Moving Average Still Resistance 10/07/11

The S&P 500 Index is still treating its 50-day moving average as resistance. The 0930 ET open is acting as resistance today. But, the market is still above its daily Pivot line.


Better Than Expected Employment Situation Report - 10/07/11

A better than expected Employment Situation Report by the Bureau of Labor Statistics helped the ES futures market jump past yesterday's high at 1160.50. The market is now settling just below R1.


Thursday, October 6, 2011

ES Futures Stay Above Pivot - Morning 10/06/11

Early on, yesterday's high provided resistance and the Pivot provided support. Yesterday's high is now provided support with the futures trading above R1. We got a small bullish TICK divergence on both the test of support at the Pivot and of support at yesterday's high. Both tests of support were successful.


Apple: Company Co-founder Steve Jobs Has Died

Wednesday, October 5, 2011

ES Futures 10/05/11

We had a continuation of yesterday afternoon's bull surge to the 10-day moving average. The afternoon session had a bull bias as indicated in the morning session with a break of the first hour's high.


VIX - S&P 500 Relationship 10/05/11

The above monthly chart shows what has happened to the S&P 500 when the VIX goes above 40 over the last two decades. The '08 - '09 dip was an extreme that involved a lot of margin calls on large hedge funds. Hopefully, that's not going to happen again any time soon.


Tuesday, October 4, 2011

ES Futures Rally On High Volume 10/04/11

The market rallied on high volume when the Financial Times reported that European finance ministers are looking at ways to coordinate recapitalizations of financial institutions. The market is interpreting this as a plan in the final stages.

High volume on an up day indicates that the big guns may be entering the market on the long side.