Friday, September 30, 2011

ES Futures Charts 09/30/11

A good consumer sentiment report this morning probably helped keep the market above S1 during the morning session. However, bear market sentiment only allowed the futures to travel half way to the Pivot line and then fall for the rest of the day. Currently, the market is refusing to close above the 10-day moving average. The S&P 500 index is testing the 1120 area again.


Thursday, September 29, 2011

ES Futures Charts 09/29/11

Nice action at the pivot lines today. The S&p 500 index is being squeezed between the 50-day moving average and the 1120 support level. Sooner or later, something will have to give.


Wednesday, September 28, 2011

ES Futures Morning Action 09/28/11

This stuff is always easy to see in hindsight.

The market has not been able to close above the 62% correction of yesterday's afternoon down swing wave. Since 1030 ET, yesterday's low is providing support while the Pivot is resistance.


Tuesday, September 27, 2011

ES Futures Charts 09/27/11

I gave up on the idea that the market would trade much below R2, since it stayed above that level most of the day. However, just like we had a surprise buying spree late yesterday, we had a surprise selling spree late today. First R2 failed as support, then the morning's low failed as support. The market didn't quite close the gap, but came close.

The futures is still below its 50-day moving average, which is bearish.

I'm not sure who is trading on the European news, but since daily volume is below average on up trends, it isn't the large institutional traders. They're still selling on advancing markets.


Monday, September 26, 2011

ES Futures Charts 09/26/11

Here are the charts for today. The last hour buying spree was little bit of a surprise.


ES Futures Volatile Globex Session 09/26/11

The Globex session is experiencing volatile movements in the market. Friday's day session low is holding as support, while the market moves above and below Friday's highs.

European traders are hoping for a refinancing plan for its banks. However, the question looms as to whether governments have the funds to finance such a plan.


Saturday, September 24, 2011

Opening Gap Trivia 09/24/11

I looked over the last two years of ES futures data for the daily time periods of 0930 to 1615 ET.

The two scenarios that I analyzed are open up gaps and open down gaps of more than 4 points. 65% of the up gap days traded back into the gap area by at least 4 points. 76% of the down gaps traded back into the gap area by at least 4 points.


The market on gap days doesn't always try to close the gap immediately. There are days when the market will trade in the opposite direction of the gap a considerable distance before reversing and trading back into the gap area.


Friday, September 23, 2011

Today's ES Futures Charts 092311

No real buyers or sellers today with the Pivot acting as support all afternoon. For the day session, we have an inside trading day, so look for the direction of a break from today's range on Monday. Of course, the Globex session traded below yesterday's low.


ES Futures Trading Below Yesterday's Low 09/23/11

Returning market weakness in Europe has sent the ES futures below yesterday's low of 1106.75. The market will test this level as resistance and support.


Thursday, September 22, 2011

1105 Area Holding As Support 09/22/11

The 1105 area is trying to hold as support for the market. Sellers spent the afternoon selling their stocks at the S2 level.


ES Futures Possible Three Wave Move On Daily Chart 09/22/11

The current down move looks almost identical to the down move in August.

So far, the market is refusing to go higher than the 50% correction level of the last down wave on the daily chart with a correction high of 1223.75. If we get a close lower than 1105.50, we may see the completion of a three-wave move, which would take the ES futures down to 954.


Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Did We Really Need The Fed To Tell Us That The Economy Stinks?

I guess that it was a surprise to some in the trading community that the economy stinks. Do we really need a bunch of overpaid Ph.D.'s in finance to tell us that?


Tuesday, September 20, 2011

S&P 500 Near Its 50 Day Moving Average 09/20/11

Apparently, the market couldn't find enough reasons to trade past the S&P 500 Index 50 day moving average. FOMC announcement tomorrow.


ES Futures Is Above Yesterday's High 09/20/11

The market is currently above yesterday's high of 1203.75. If it stays above that point, we may have a strong, bullish day. Depends on how strong the bullish conviction is in the market. So far, the market is determined to stay above the 10 day moving average.


Monday, September 19, 2011

Last Hour Surge Is Disappearing 09/19/11

The market found support at the 10-day moving average, which set up a surge to the upside in the last 40 minutes of trading. However, that gain has since disappeared in after market trading.

The 178 bar average on the 10 minute chart did provide resistance until the last 40 minutes. However, has I stated in the last paragraph, the market is back below that average. Let's see if today's low can provide any support.


No Solution To Debt Crisis - 09/19/11

The futures market are unhappy with no solution to the global debt crisis being proposed over the weekend.

Politicians worldwide need to come to one realization. We probably won't be able to grow our way out of this crisis like we have done in the past. Actually, all humans need to come to that realization. We live on a finite planet with finite living space, with finite resources. We can probably grow a little more, but the mega growth spurts of the past are over. We now have to make difficult choices, and make policies that doesn't include large growth potential in the future.

We now live in a different world than the past. Our thinking on how to live on this small planet must also be different.


Saturday, September 17, 2011

178 And 100 Bar Averages In A Downtrend

Here are the 178 and 100 bar averages in a down trending market from 09/08/11 to 09/13/11.


Friday, September 16, 2011

My Favorite Averages To Follow 09/16/11

On the Globex chart, I use the 178 bar moving average of the pivot (H+L+C) / 3. Typically, the market is in an uptrend when it is above this average, and a down trend when it is below this average. On the 5 minute day chart, I use the 100 bar average for the same reason. Today, the market used these two averages as support.

I derived at these numbers by first starting with the number of bars on each chart per day. On a 24 hour time span, the Globex chart has 144 bars and the 5 minute day chart has 81 bars. If you multiply each number by 1.234, which is a Fibonacci retracement number, you get 178 and 100. Interestingly, the market appears to follow these lines most of the time. Weird but true.


ES Futures Early Morning Charts 09/16/11

We have had four up days in a row, so we may start to see some decrease in bullish momentum. However, the ES futures is staying on the bullish side of its 178-bar average on the Globex 10-minute chart. So the market is still bullish for now.


Wednesday, September 14, 2011

ES Futures 5 Minute Chart 09/14/11

At first it looked like R1 would again be today's resistance level. The market then started to advance on two news reports:
The market ended up closing just above R2.


US Stock Market Rallying on German And French Support Of Greece

US Stocks Rally On Greek Reassurances

Market Watch reports that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy are reassuring the markets that Greece will remain in the euro zone and will help Greece avoid a disorderly default.


Tuesday, September 13, 2011

ES Futures 5 Minute Chart 09/13/11

The market just couldn't trade much past R1.


Why Obama Job Creation Proposal Won't Work

Why won't Obama's job creation proposal work?

It's simple arithmetic. $467 billion going into private sector for job creation minus $467 billion in additional private sector taxes to pay for job creation bill equals zero.


Potential China Investment Unable To Hold Up Overnight Markets 09/13/11

European Stocks and US futures fell overnight amide fears of an escalating sovereign-debt crisis. French banks led the way to a declining market. Globex futures is stabilizing near its 179 period average.

China has an interesting decision. It wants to help stabilize Europe to help consumer demand for its products. However, some of its recent investment decisions have been losers. What is more important for China? Try to help stabilize sick economies in Europe and the US, or look for better investments? Is Italy a good investment or another investment loser?


Monday, September 12, 2011

Italy Looking For Help From China 09/12/11

Italy Turns To China For Help In Debt Crisis

The Financial Times in Europe is reporting that the China Investment Corp is talking with Italian officials about the possibility of the Chinese investment firm buying Italy's bonds. Italy has a large bond sale tomorrow. This helped the US stock market bounce off today's lows.


Saturday, September 10, 2011

S&P 500 Futures Trend Down For The Day 09/10/11

The market broke to the down side from yesterday's NR7 day. It wobbled most of the morning staying below S1. As the Europeans finished their trading for the day, the market broke down below the morning's range, and found support at S3.

Cantor Fitzgerald's CEO Howard Lutnick said an intertesting thing in his interview with Piers Morgan last night. He said that people like Warren Buffet should use their business intelligence and money not to make the government richer or to destroy jobs through acquisitions, but to go out and create jobs. What an interesting concept for America! Where is Henry Ford when we need him?


Thursday, September 8, 2011

Narrow Range Day 09/08/11

In the morning session, the market again did not close below the 0930 ET open. However, it found resistance just above yesterday's high. As Bernanke started to talk in the afternoon, the market traded down to S1. Since today is the most Narrow Range of the past 7 days, pay attention to the direction of the breakout of this range.


Wednesday, September 7, 2011

Trading Through Resistance 09/07/11

When R2 started acting like resistance, I thought that the market might close at least half the opening gap. But once the market traded above the 0930 ET open, it never again had a close below that level on the 5-minute chart. Since it is not uncommon for the market to make its high or low for the day before 1030 ET and the market was refusing to make a lower low, it became a good bet that the market would trend up. The rest of the day was a series of higher highs and lows. Tomorrow I start trading the December contract.


ES Futures Back To The 10-Day Moving Average 09/07/11

The overnight market has had good follow through of yesterday's uptrend move. However, it is back to its 10-day moving average on the daily chart, and just below the 50% correction of the last down swing wave. So we may see some resistance to further upward movement.


Tuesday, September 6, 2011

ES Futures 5 Minute Chart for 09/06/11

The above pivots are based on the 0930 to 1615 ET time period. S3 provided support this morning, and the market bounced off that level after the European markets closed for the day. S1 turned out to be the big resistance level of the afternoon. The market wasn't quite able to close the opening gap.


Monday, September 5, 2011

ES Futures Bear Flag 09/05/11

When I first looked at the top chart, I thought "upward channel". However, this is also the making of a Bear Flag formation. The small upward move of the last 20 days, so far, is nothing more than a 50% Fib correction. If the market breaks out of the channel to the down side, we will be looking at a dismal fall session for the markets.


Secrets From A Pawn Star