Wednesday, March 31, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/31/10

I suspect a lot of traders simply want to liquidate positions before the long holiday weekend, especially with the Employment Situation Report being issued on a closed market day. The Point of Control for today is 1165.50.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/31/10

The intraday market can be comical sometimes. One economic report sells the market, and a few minutes later another report brings in the buyers. Anyway, the market this morning is floating between the overnight highs and lows while awaiting further employment data over the next few days.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/31/10

The ADP Employment number disappointed the futures market. The market is currently testing yesterday's low at 1164.25, and is well below yesterday's Point of Control at 1169.50. If the market opens below 1164.25, the probability is low that it will close the gap.
Friday's Employment Situation Report will be released when the stock market is closed for a 3-day weekend. It will be interesting to see how traders finish the week and quarter tomorrow afternoon.

Tuesday, March 30, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/30/10

We actually got a slightly higher close from yesterday. A bullish $TICK divergence occured about 15-minutes before 1400 ET, and the market climbed all the way to the bond market close. Today's Point of Control is 1169.50.

ES Futres Morning Review 03/30/10

One serious warning sign was that the major components of the S&P 500 were trending down as the index was trying to make higher highs.

On the 1-minute chart, the bar colors reflect the trend of the $TICK index - red when trending down, and green when trending up. Just before 1100 ET as the Europeans were getting ready for their half-hour of trading, the $TICK turned bearish and the ES futures broke through support.


ES Futures Premarket Review 03/30/10

The market has been testing yesterday's high of 1171. The Consumer Confidence report at 1000 ET may move the market.
Days following an up day have generally been bullish. Currently, the market is between the 1615 ET close of 1168.75 and yesterday's high of 1171. When the market opens in this range, it closes the opening gap 77% of the time. It also tends to close about 7 handles or points above the previous day's close.
When the market opens above the previous day's high, it closes the opening gap 55% of the time, and closes 9 points above the previous day's close.

Monday, March 29, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/29/10

Not a lot of activity to talk about in the afternoon session. The market close right at its Point of Control at 1168.75, and close above the open. This is also 5.50 handles above Friday's pivot of 1163.25. Today's pivot is 1168.25. Today is also a Narrow Range 7 day.


ES Futures Morning Review 03/29/10

The market is finding resistance at Friday's day session high. It couldn't quite close the gap in the morning session, but tried.

Some additional statistics for a day like today, based on two-years of data.

  • On average, the market closes 7.5 points or handles above the previous day's close.
  • If you remove the closes below the previous day's close, which is about 30% of the closes, the market closes 15.25 handles above the previous day's close.
  • The high of the day is about 13.5 handles above the previous day's pivot number, which is 1163.25 today.
  • The market will close above the open about 50% of the time.


ES Futures Premarket Review 03/29/10

When the previous day is a down day like Friday, and today's open is less than the previous day's high but greater than the previous day's close, the gap will close about 75% of the time. This is the gap between today's 0930 ET open and the previous day's close at 1615 ET. Currently, the market is well off the overnight high of 1171, but still has not yet closed the gap. The overnight low, so far, is 1164.

Saturday, March 27, 2010

Weekend Musings - Longest Burning Light Bulb

The Longest Burning Light Bulb in history is located at Fire Station #6 in Livermore, California. It was turned off a few times in its life to be relocated; otherwise, it has been burning for 109 years.

Other bulbs making history:

  1. A bulb located in the Stockyards Museum in Fort Worth, Texas has been burning since 1908.
  2. Another bulb in a New York City hardware store had been burning since 1912, but it is unknown if it is still burning.
  3. A bulb in a firehouse at Mangum, Oklahoma has been in operation since 1926.
  4. A fifth bulb located at the Martin & Newby Electrical Shop in Ipswich, England as dated from 1930, and burned out in 2001.


Friday, March 26, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/26/10

The Point of Control is 1167.50; however, there is a large support volume area between 1160 and 1163. The 1615 ET close is 1163.25, and the average price for the day is 1163.50.
We got the typical 1400 ET reversal going into the energy market close, which occured on the test of the overngith low. Near 1530 ET when the market sometimes starts to move, the market gave us a bullish $TICK divergence on a 62% correction of the 1400 ET up wave. The close above 1163 is encouraging for the bulls.

ES Futures Morning Session Review 03/26/10

Buyers waited for the market to close the opening - 1615 ET close gap. As suspected, the market has found resistance at yesterday's Point of Control at 1170. So far, we do have a narrow range day.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/26/10

The overnight market has corrected to the 50% level of yesterday afternoon's down wave. It is still below yesterday's Point of Control at 1170, but above yesterday's close at 1162.50. We may have a more narrow range than yesterday with the market testing the 1170 and 1160 areas.

Thursday, March 25, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/25/10

The market is worried about European finances again. We did get a NYSE Advance - Decline Line bearish divergence between noon and 1300 ET. With the combination of these two lead weights hanging on the market, the market finally closed the opening gap.
Today's Point of Control is 1170.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/25/10

The market closed half of the opening gap. The $TICK 50-period average stayed above zero, and the $TICK finally hit 800 at 1021 ET. It's been uphill since.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/25/10

The market is trading above the last pivot high of 1170.50. About 70% of the time, the market will close the opening gap. The other 30% of the time, we need to watch out for a high volume range expansion in the direction of the gap. If the market goes back below 1170.50, the odds of closing the gap increases.

Wednesday, March 24, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/24/10

Not a lot to say about this afternoon's market. The market did stay just below its VWAP line most of the afternoon. The range is below average, and we have an inside day - today's market stayed within yesterday's high and low. Today's Point of Control is 1163.50.
Jobless Claims again tomorrow morning, and Bernanke speaks at 1000 ET. Watch which direction the market breaks from this narrow range.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/24/10

On the 5-minute chart, the market tried to stay above the 78-period SMA, but that support crumbled after 1100 ET. The market also could not completely close the opening gap. On the flip side of the coin, as the futures is making a new daily low, the NYSE Advance - Decline line is not.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/24/10

The overnight market got a little concerned over European financial health again. However, the market is still staying above yesterday's Point of Control at 1163.

Tuesday, March 23, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/23/10

Again, we got a reversal in the bullish direction at 1400 ET as the energy market wound up its trades for the day. The market was also bouncing off its VWAP Line at that time.
That's a good place to play the 3 to 1 trade. Enter with a multiple of 3 contracts and liquidate 2 as the market goes in your direction. Keep 1 contract to take advantage of any surprise trend moves like the one we got after 1500 ET. Otherwise, exit that 1 contract at breakeven or slightly above breakeven.
Today's Point of Control is 1163.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/23/10

The last two trading days had above average ranges, so we were due for a narrow range morning. Anticipation of a narrow range day makes $TICK divergences a higher probability for success, especially when the market is testing the yearly high.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/23/10

The overnight market is staying above the 1161 price level, but is still finding resistance just below 1165.50. We will have to wait to see if the market stays stuck in this small range.

Monday, March 22, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/22/10

In the afternoon session, we got a nice 1400 ET reversal in the direction of the day's trend as the energy market closed for the day. The close ended up above Thursday's and today's Point of Control, which is 1158.75.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/22/10

It is said that 70% of the time, the market will retest the previous day's average price or its Point of Control (High Volume Price). Today is part of that 70% statistic. Currently, the market is stalling near Thursday's Point of Control.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/22/10

On the daily chart, the market is sitting on the 10-period EMA and is still above the support price of 1143.25. On the 60-minute chart, the market is below the resistance price of 1152. One or the other will give way, but not sure which one.

Saturday, March 20, 2010

The Unattainable Dream

Never give up on the unattainable dream.


by W. B. Yeats

I went out to the hazel wood,
Because a fire was in my head
And cut and peeled a hazel wand,
And hooked a berry to a thread;

And when white moths were on the wing,
And moth-like stars were flickering out,
I dropped the berry in a stream
And caught a little silver trout.

When I had laid it on the floor
I went to blow the fire a-flame,
But something rustled on the floor,
And some one called me by my name:
It had become a glimmering girl
With apple blossom in her hair
Who called me by my name and ran
And faded through the brightening air.

Though I am old with wandering
Through hollow lands and hilly lands,
I will find out where she has gone,
And kiss her lips and take her hands;
And walk among long dappled grass,
And pluck till time and times are done
The silver apples of the moon,
The golden apples of the sun.

Friday, March 19, 2010

Quadruple Witching Review 03/19/10

We have a volume support area (Point of Control) between 1154 and 1155.
That was a strange little dip that occured exactly at 1530 ET, which probably means a program trade activated. However, the market recovered and traded back toward the VWAP Line by the close.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/19/10

The dollar is gaining strength as equities fall a little. The S&P 500 Cash market may find support near 1150.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/19/10

The overnight market has done nothing. We have a small range between 1163.50 and 1159.75. We can say that the market is slightly bullish by being just above yesterday's Point of Control at 1161. No economic reports today to stir the market. It is quadruple witching day, but I suspect that most contracts have already been rolled over.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/18/10

The market took a dip going into the European close. However, even after making a lower low, we got a bullish $TICK divergenc, which eventually sent the market back to its VWAP Line. Today's Point of Control is again 1161.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/18/10

The market this morning has been happy staying near yesterday's Point of Control with low volatility. The market thus far keeps fading any attempts at tests of the overnight high or low.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/18/10

The 0830 ET economic reports had little effect on the market. The overnight range is 1164 to 1157.25. We are pretty much in the middle of yesterday's high and low. I guess that the market feels comfortable here. Quadruple witching tomorrow.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/17/10

Today's Point of Control is 1161, which is where the market closed. The afternoon market got overextended and fell back to a high volume price level.

ES Futures Morning Review 03/17/10

I guess we won't get much profit taking by the bulls. The market was acting a little sluggish just before 1100 ET, but we got a good pop to the upside anyway. Now the market is just hanging around the high of the day with low volatility.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/17/10

So far the early morning market is treating yesterday's high of 1155.75 as support. When the market opens, there may be some profit taking. 1152 may be a stronger support level. The overnight range is 1159.50 to 1154.

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

ES Futures Morning Review 03/16/10

The market corrected this morning just enough to close the open gap. In the first hour of trading, buyers started buying when the $TICK came close to the -600 level. Going long following the 1000 to 1020 ET correction makes me a little nervous. That trade in the last two years has been a money loser. However, it has been working lately.

ES Futures Premarket Review 03/16/10

We get a FOMC Announcement this afternoon.
Previous high and low pivots (resistance and support) are 1152 and 1136.50. The overnight high and low are 1149 and 1144.50. The market is still above yesterday's Point of Control at 1142.50.

Monday, March 15, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 03/15/10

There are times when the market will do something different after the energy market closes at 1430 ET. Today was one of those times. After 1430 ET, we got a bullish $TICK divergence, and the market proceeded to break throught resistance levels. It climbed back to yesterday's Point of Control.

Today's Point of Control is 1142.50. The market is also back above the previous yearly high of 1143.25.