Monday, November 30, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/30/09

Because of the holiday trading schedule, TradeStation's software thinks that today is Friday's "P" period. However, today's volume distribution pattern suggest a bullish sentiment. The market closed above today's Point of Control, and right at Friday's.

During the lunchtime period, the market tested the overnight low and developed a bullish $TICK divergence. This helped create a narrow range market today. Today's range is below average, but not a 4 or 7 narrow range day.


ES Futures - Morning Review 11/30/09

In the first hour, the market was giving bullish signals except for the snall caps.

As the market was testing the overnight high at 1098, the Consumer Discretionary and Technology Sectors were refusing to make a higher high.

The market made it within 1.5 points of the overnight high and then faded. So one of the overnight range extremes again became a key pivot point.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/30/09

The market is hoovering in the bottom half of a 1-month equilibrium range. Currently, it is between Friday's high and close. Investors are trying to determine the impact of the Dubai debt situation, and the results of shopping on Black Friday.


Friday, November 27, 2009

ES Futures - Morning Session Review 11/27/09

An impressive response to the holiday plunge. The market has closed more than half the opening gap following the Thanksgiving Holiday.

Trading past the premarket pivot high, and then having the pivot high act as support is bullish in a large, down gap scenario. And then trading past the overnight high on decent volume was another bullish indication.


ES Futures - Pre PreMarket Review 11/27/09

Well, this was suppose to be a do nothing day. Just when you thought things were looking up, we now have to be worried about Dubai billionaires defaulting on their loans.

The market is currently staying below a strong support level of 1082.50, which is now resistance. It is trying to stay above the 1076 level. If 1076 fails, we may see a strong correction to the downside. Large investors will be looking for more info on the Dubai situation, which may take a week or two. The market may be unstable for the next few weeks. It depends if we start seeing a lot of margin calls on commodities and currencies or not. Just have to wait and see.


Wednesday, November 25, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/25/09

I didn't trade the afternoon session. However, the market did stay below the 1112.50 level, and it stayed above the Point of Control of the last two days. It also closed above today's Point of Control. Friday is another low volume day with most US traders taking the day off. May see profit taking next week.


ES Futures - Morning Review 11/25/09

The market did find support at yesterday's Point of Control and closing price. The small uptrend that we have seen this morning is confirmed with a positive $TICK and up trending NYSE Advance - Decline Line, but otherwise with weak momentum. I would be surprised if the market goes much beyond 1112.50.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/25/09

Even though the unemployment situation is improving, the market is still retreating from the 1112.50 resistance. The first part of December is typically weak.

Should be low volume today and Friday. Most US traders will be looking forward to a 4-day holiday, and leave early today.


Tuesday, November 24, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/24/09

The market did finish above today's Point of Control, but below yesterday's. Still slightly bullish going into a couple of low volume days with the US market closed on Thursday.

The market was able to test the premarket high and then fade back to the Point of Control.

Yesterday was a wide range day, which meant that today was likely to be a more narrow ranged, balanced day. On these narrow range days, you may not see the usual $TICK divergences on test of strong support and resistance prices. An example is this afternoon's test of the overnight high. The market instantly faded from that price level, and went back to today's Point of Control with the $TICK reaching the +1000 level. It didn't retest that price, so there was no divergence.

The aggressive trade is to short that afternoon high as the $TICK went above +1000. The more conservative play is to short on the test of the pivot low located at the 0930 ET open price. No right or wrong strategy, just a personal decision.


ES Futures - Morning Review 11/24/09

Yesterday's Point of Control is acting as resistance.

The market found support at the pivot high of 1095.25 made on 11/19/09.

After bouncing off the 1095.25 pivot, the market tested Yesterday's Day Session Low and the Overnight Low. At 1035 ET, the NYSE Advance Decline Line started to make a higher pivot high coning off the morning's low. This confirmed the possibility that the market might go higher, and it did. The market advanced until it hit yesterday's Point of Control.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/24/09

With this marked up 60 minute chart, you can see that the biggest moves in the market are breaks out of equilibrium zones that last 40 hours or longer, and test of identifiable support and resistance prices.

Yesterday, we had big moves on the upward break of the two day equilibrium zone, and on the fade of the 11/16/09 high.

Overnight, the market has corrected 62% of yesterday afternoon's down wave, and has found resistance at that point. Support is near the 50% correction of yesterday's up wave.


Monday, November 23, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/23/09

The market retreated from a multi-day high, but didn't close the opening gap. It closed just below its Point of Control.

Let's examine a 1520 ET trade opportunity. A small example on how to read the intra-day market.

  • The market was negative all afternoon, and below the VWAP Line.
  • At 1520 ET, the market completed a small 3-wave move against the afternoon trend.
  • The NYSE Advance - Decline Line was weak relative to the Futures.
  • $TICK indicated a bearish divergence.
  • The market tumbles.


ES Futures - Morning Session 11/23/09

Just two observations for this morning. At the 0930 ET open, the market treated the ledge that was formed early in the morning as support, and took off to the upside on a test of that support.

Going into the European close, the market tried to form a support bottom near 1107. However, notice how the NYSE Advance - Decline Line kept making lower lows as the futures was trying to bottom. There just was not enough support in the equity market for the futures to stay above 1107. As of this writing, the futures is now at 1105.50.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/23/09

We can now say that the action of the latter part of last week was a short-term bottoming process. Those that shorted the market late Friday are lossing money. This is almost identical to what happened last Monday morning.

We have Existing Home Sales at 1000 ET, which may influence the market.


Friday, November 20, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/20/09

The market closed above today's Point of Control, but just below yesterday's. Still qualifies as a bottoming pattern.

Maybe once or twice a day we may see a divergence with the NYSE Advance - Decline Line. Just after 1430 ET and a test of yesterday's Point of Control, the futures faded back a few points. However, the Adv - Decl Line corrected to a lesser extend showing underlying strength in the cash market. Around 1530 ET, we got a pop to the upside.

The 1 minute chart shows the fade from resistance, and then the pop to the upside in late afternoon trading.


ES Futures - Morning Session 11/20/09

We do have a more narrow range today, with the market spending most of today staying in the bottom half of yesterday's Value Area. Any bottoming process, if that is what's happening today, can be frustrating. The market will keep testing the lows until there are very few sellers left.

Today I see more bullish divergences than bearish ones. The $TICK moving average on the longer term chart is making higher lows. I expect the market to stay in this narrow range today. Next week is statistically bullish.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/20/09

Early morning trading sent the market past yesterday's Point of Control, which is now resistance. The market dipped below yesterday's low, but snapped back just above that level. We will have to wait and see how the first 30 minutes of trading react to the overnight low and yesterday's low.


Thursday, November 19, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/19/09

This is actually a bullish pattern, especially with the close above today's Point of Control.

We should see a more narrow ranged market tomorrow.

This type of day is different than last year. Last year the market on a day like today would have closed near the day's low. Not much action this afternoon. The VWAP Line acted as support and resistance, mainly because there wasn't much else around to act as support or resistance.


ES Futures - Morning Session Review 11/19/09

The market has dropped down into the next lower zone.

Not much analysis here. Another freight train, but this time in the down direction. As with most strong trends, the market is staying below its VWAP line.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/19/09

Over the last two days, the market was unable to penetrate Monday's Point of Control. Today we are starting with the market at or just below yesterday's low. The 0830 ET Jobless Claims Report lifted the market 2-points, but it still looks weak.

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/18/09

Almost an identical day to yesterday. Once again, the market closes above the Point of Control of today and yesterday.

As the market tested the morning low, it showed reluctance to trade up. Traders were hoping for a lower low, possibly with a $TICK divergence. However, the market just could not make it quite that far down.


ES Futures - Morning Session 11/18/09

It's not unusal for a market in a short down trend to revisit the previous day's low. However, the tumble that began at 0945 ET was a little curious for the following reasons:

  • The Financials remained strong during the tumble. It's a little unusual in the past year for the Financials to be strong while the rest of the market is weak.
  • The dollar is substantially weaker today than yesterday. Lately, this has been a bullish signal.

However, the rest of the market was weak including the small caps. Buyers correctly waited for the market to test yesterday's low before jumping back in. They traded the market all the way back to the 0930 ET open.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/18/09

The market was showing bullish signs until the 0830 ET economic reports were issued. The market has traded down a bit to yesterday's Point of Control. The market is trying to hold at this level. However, we are currently below yesterday's close, which is a slight negative.


Tuesday, November 17, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 11/17/09

The market is looking bullish again. Not much action to talk about in the afternoon session. The market did fade from resistance in the early afternoon, but after that just meandered in a 4-point range. However, closing just above today's Point of Control is bullish.


ES Futures - Morning Session Review 11/17/09

The market tested yesterday's Point of Control and faded to the downside.

The overnight high just happen to be near yesterday's Point of Control and closing price, which made this area strong resistance. So far, we have been getting bullish $TICK divergence at the overnight low, which is keeping the market in a narrow range as suspected.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 11/17/09

The market has stayed below yesterday's Point of Control all night, which is currently resistance. It is trying to stay above the 11/11/09 high, which it has tested several time. Look for divergences to signal a narrow range market today.