Thursday, April 30, 2009

End of Day Review 04/30/09

The 872 area did not hold as support.

Morning Review 04/30/09

$TICK action is suggesting a decrease in bullish momentum. The best trades were corrections back to the VWAP, which has been acting as support up until just before Noon ET.

Discretionary and Technology Stocks are still bullish relative to Staples and Health Care.

PreMarket Review 04/30/09

Overnight the market found support at the 50% correction of yesterday's range.

Let's see if the 872 area will hold as support.

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

End of Day Review 04/29/09

Deja vous. Discretionary and Technology Stocks diverge in the afternoon, and the market retreats below 872. An up day never-the-less.

Morning Review 042909

The market is again testing the 872 area.

At the 872 resistance level, we are seeing a Financial Sector divergence.

We are also seeing a $TICK divergence.

FOMC Announcement at 1415 ET today.


First Hour Review 04/29/09

Discretionary, Technology and Financial Stocks are hot all at the same time today.
The market could only correct 38% of the A / B Wave. As the market was correcting, the Futures refused to go lower than its VWAP line. At the 1015 ET bell following a 12 minute correction, the market took off to the upside.

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

End of Day Review 04/28/09

Didn't trade today, but my technical problems with my internet connection has been resolved. Will be back to normal tomorrow.
The market did stay above its VWAP most of the day. The Financials, for a change, mirrored the broad market action. The one notable divergence was between the Discretionary Stocks and the broad market at around 1440 ET.
The market is statistically bullish the last four trading days of April and the first three trading days of May. However, the market still has not traded past the 872 resistance.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Day Session Range Collapse

The Day Session range has been below the 200 day average since late March. The range also has been declining for 4 straight trading sessions. This should eventually lead to a more volatile day.

End of Day Review 04/27/09

The 2-Period SMA of the $TICK's (H+L+C)/3 or pivot on the 5-minute chart probably tells the best story concerning supply and demand than any other indicator.

Morning Review 04/27/09

Thought that I would post this while the Internet is working. Just after Noon ET, we got a nice Financial and Discretionary Divergence with the broader market. During the morning trading, the market was able to close the gap despite the weak Financial and Discretionary markets.

The morning trading is typically a good time to play the up and down $TICK cycles. It appears to be more reliable in the morning hours. Once the 2-Period SMA of the $TICK (H+L+C)/3 pivot turns up or down, you usually get a follow through 5-minute bar.

Technical Problems With Internet Connections

The problem should be resolved tomorrow afternoon. The connection is too intermittent right now to bother with many postings. Problem should be fixed tomorrow afternoon.


Friday, April 24, 2009

End of Day Review 04/24/09

I didn't feel comfortable with today's market. The market just didn't make the usual patterns, Financials were weak at first while the Discretionary Stocks were strong relative to Staples, but the $TICK was sluggish. Then the Financials strengthened, but the $TICK was still sluggish. Maybe I am just tired after a week's worth of trading. Anyway, the market did slowly climb upwards, but is still below the 872 resistance.

Morning Review 04/24/09

The Discretionary and Technology Stocks have been more bullish relative to the Staple and Health Care Stocks all morning. The Financials, however, have been laggards, especially in the first hour of trading.

At 1030 ET, the Financials started to show some bullishness relative to the broad market. This helped trend the market upward after the test of the 0930 ET open; however, the $TICK has been a little weak on this uptrend. Upward momentum is weakening for the broad market, but it is still heading up slowly.

Thursday, April 23, 2009

End of Day Review 04/23/09

Again, we got a bullish divergence in the last half hour of trading with the Discretionary and Financial Sectors. At 1430 ET, the Financials led the broader market higher. The tumble going into the bond market close was interesting, but the bulls won at the finish line.

Since the overnight market could not trade past the 62% correction of yesterday afternoon's down wave, I felt that today would most likely be a down day.

However, up to 1030 ET, the Discretionary Stocks were more bullish relative to Staple Stocks than I liked for a bearish market. Also, the Financial Stocks were not making a lower low which increased my concern. But as the market tested the 0930 ET open, the Financials were not validating the futures higher price.

The $TICK was also showing some weakness in momentum as the market tested the 0930 ET open, which often acts as support or resistance. Indeed, the market did retreat after that test of the open. Also, after 1030 ET, the Discretionary Stocks started to show some weakness relative to Staples. But since the Financials are still not making a lower low, we may see the market trade in a relatively narrow range.


Market Structure Analysis 04/23/09

In the recent upward move, the market has been giving nice 3-wave moves with good market symmetry. Wave C - D is almost a 100% extension of Wave A - B following a 62% correction. Wave E - F created in the last few days is about a 75% correction of Wave D - E. We may be in a short-term downward correction. For market symmetry to complete itself in this short-term correction, the market should trade down to 810 if it wants to complete market symmetry.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

End of Day Review 04/22/09

Between 1530 ET and 1600 ET lately has been one of those interesting times of day for trading. Didn't have much of a $TICK divergence, but the Financials and Discretionary / Staples Ratio did make a bearish divergent signal as the Futures was making a higher high. The Futures then made a large move to the downside.

For those new to the blog, above is the 78-Period Pivot Code.

And the VWAP Code above.

Morning Activity Review 04/22/09

Financials are doing OK, but it is the Discretionary and Technology Stocks that are leading the market today.
I didn't expect the market to make a higher high today, and thought of shorting the market a few times on its almost straight up trend. However, the strength of the Discretionary Stocks convinced me to not try to stop a freight train. Good thing. Even though there is some evidence that the upward move is losing momentum, it is still going up.

End of Day Review 04/21/09

One thing that is noticable about yesterday's action is that whenever the $TICK corrected down the Futures corrected down very little percentage wise. The impulse was to the upside most of the day.


Tuesday, April 21, 2009

First Hour of Trading 04/21/09

We didn't get the 50% correction of yesterday's range, at least not yet, but we did close the gap between yesterday's day session close and today's open.

Financials are still lagging, but Discretionary and Technology Stocks are looking much better relative to the Staple and Health Care Stocks.

PreMarket Observations 04/21/09

A 50% correction of yesterday's range would be normal. Today could end up being a slightly positvie day.

We are currently in the middle of that resistance zone.

The market is still well above the April open, but still below the yearly open.

Monday, April 20, 2009

End of Day Review 04/20/09

Not a whole lot to say about today's market except that it went almost straight down. Tomorrow should be a less negative day.

First Hour Review 04/20/09

Wow, just like the good, old days with the good, old days being last September - November. Forget about indicators or divergences, this is emotional trading by equity longs wanting to get out as quickly as possible. Don't fight the trend.

PreMarket Review 04/20/09

In overnight activity, the market is bouncing off the 872 level tested last week. In early European trading, the banking sector is being sold. The market, however, is still in an uptrend as long as the market stays above 831.50.
The "Select Sector SPDR's" web site is a nice information source for the eight sector spiders.

Saturday, April 18, 2009

End-of-Day Review 04/17/09

After the European close and while Bernanke was speaking, the Discretionary - Technology Stocks turned bullish, and the Financials started leading the broader market higher.

After 1230 ET, the market tested the VWAP line and advanced to higher highs. Once the market broke the 0930 ET Open resistance, this line became support.


Friday, April 17, 2009

Mid-Day Review 04/17/09

The $TICK, Discretionary and Technology Stocks have been in a down trend all morning. Financials, however, are trying to raise the market. So far, the market is staying above the 78-Period Pivot Line on the 5-minute chart, but finding resistance near the 0930 ET open. The market is also unable at this time to trade above yesterday's high.