Saturday, June 2, 2012

S&P 500 Weekend Review 06/02/12


The S&P 500 hasn't quite completed a 50% correction of its last up leg on the weekly chart. However, with Friday's close below the 200-day moving average, we may see the index go to 1249 and complete the technical correction.

On the ES futures daily chart, we see that the market is still in a down trend with its 20-day moving average attracting sellers.


Wednesday, May 23, 2012

As Good As It Gets 05/23/12

A short trade set up this morning is about as good as it gets.
  1. Momentum is bearish on the 1, 5 and 15 minutes charts
  2. The advance - decline line is below -1000 (top chart)
  3. The $TICK is in a down trend ( top charts)
  4. The market is below S1
  5. We get a small correction back to S1 and the 20 bar SMA for a short entry (top chart)
  6. Sellers send the market to S2

Friday, May 18, 2012

S&P 500 Index May Tumble 05/18/12

Today's 15 minute ES Futures chart, top chart above, shows two three-wave moves between the Pivot and S1, both calculated using 24-hour data. Bears still control the market.

On the S&P 500 index Weekly chart above, we can see that a 50% correction of the last up wave is around 1249. So far, the market isn't falling as fast as it did last year following a topping, Head and Shoulders formation. We will have to wait and see if a 50% correction entices some long term buying.


Saturday, May 12, 2012

Morning Bulls Crumble In Afternoon Trading 05/12/12

The quick climb from S2 to R1 in Friday morning's trading seemed a little suspicious to me. For one thing, Friday's Advance - Decline Line high was below Thursday's low (second chart above). This is not a good indication of bullish momentum. So, in the afternoon trading, the market crumbled back down below S1.

The S&P 500 index is trying to stay above its 100-day moving average, but it is having difficulties trading above April's lows. So, the market is staying in a bearish mood for the moment.

Charles A. Pennison

Thursday, May 10, 2012

ES Futures 5 Minute Chart With Two Simple Moving Averages

I've been watching the 24 and 38 bar moving averages on the ES Futures 5 minute Globex charts for some time now. Traders must be keying on these two averages since the market frequently turns on tests of these averages.

The above charts are examples of wavy, up trending, down trending and market reversal days. Another thing interesting about these two averages on the 5 minute chart is that the market turns occur near a 50% corrective move on a three-wave formation.

Charles A. Pennison

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

ES Futures 60-Minute Chart Morning 05/01/12

On the 60-minute chart above, the ES Futures is trying to decide if it wants to stay above or below the 1390 level. The market is currently attracting some bulls as it lifts off of a double bottom formation. However, the market is also stalling as it starts to test all-time highs.

The month of May in the last 5 years is a mixed bag. 2 of the last 5 years were a bullish May, and 3 of the last 5 years were a bearish May.


Monday, April 23, 2012

ES Futures May Test April 10th Low 04/23/12

From Bloomberg: "European stocks fell after reports showed manufacturing contracted in the euro area and China and as Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte failed to reach an agreement with a coalition party over austerity measures. Asian stocks and U.S. futures also slid."


Wednesday, April 11, 2012

ES Futures Still In Down Trend 04/11/12

On the ES Futures 60-minute chart above, you can see that we are still in a down trend. Today's move was simply a 50% jump from yesterday's sharp down wave.


Monday, April 2, 2012

First Trading Day of Apil Continues To Be A Strong Bull

This may be a good indication that the entire month of April will continue to be a strong bull month.


Thursday, March 29, 2012

S&P 500 Index April Charts For The Last 5 Years

The above charts are the S&P 500 Index for the last 5 years.

Each year of the last 5 years has April closing higher than its open for the month. The low for the month occurred on the first day of the month in the years 2007, 2009 and 2010. The years 2008 and 2011 made its monthly low in the middle of the month.

Below are the point gains for April:

  • 2011: + 34 points
  • 2010: + 15 points
  • 2009: + 79 points
  • 2008: + 59 points
  • 2007: + 61 points

ES Futures Morning Session 03/29/12

The Advance - Decline Line is still trending lower, indicating continued selling in the second to last trading day of March. This has helped keep the ES Futures below S1 and yesterday's low for most of the morning.

The last trading day of March is also usually weak. We may see some bargain hunting in anticipation of a more bullish start in April. The first week of April is typically more bullish than the last week of March.


Wednesday, March 28, 2012

ES Futures 03/28/12

Both the ES futures and the S&P 500 Index are at their 10-day moving average. The Pivot of the Advance - Decline Line didn't quite make it to the -1000 line. So, we will have to see if most of the selling is done, or if there is more to come. The end of March is typically weak.


Monday, March 26, 2012

ES Futures Pivots For Tuesday 03/26/12

Trading Pivots for tomorrow.

Cup and Handle formation on the 10-minute chart. Gave us a strong reversal.


Friday, March 23, 2012

ES Futures S&P 500 Index Weekend Charts 03/23/12

We got our higher close from yesterday's close. However, as you can see on the 60 minute chart, the 1395 line is still resistance.

Stay tuned.


Thursday, March 22, 2012

ES Futures 03/22/12

The market spent the day bouncing between S3 and S2.

The S&P 500 Index is back to its 10-day moving average with the Advance - Decline Line Pivot just below - 1000. There's a decent chance that tomorrow's close will be higher than today's close.


Wednesday, March 21, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 03/21/12

The market tested yesterday's high and crumbled. The low of the first 30 minutes was violated, which set up a bearish market sentiment for most of the morning. So far, the market is staying above yesterday's low and S1.


Tuesday, March 20, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 03/20/12

Some in the market feel that they are picking up bargains at S2, but not enough of a bargain to trade the market past S1. A stock market at its 10-day moving average would be a better bargain.

If the Advance - Decline Line finishes the day at or below - 1000, tomorrow would have a good chance of finishing up for the day.


Monday, March 19, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 03/19/12

R1 was resistance until the start of the last hour of European trading at 1130 ET. At that point, resistance faded and the US market bounced above R2.


Friday, March 16, 2012

ES Futures And S&P 500 Index Weekend Charts 03/16/12

Today was the most narrow range of the last 7 days - an NR7 day. Watch for a high volume break out of this small range.


ES Futures Morning Session 03/16/12

The market so far this morning is fading R1. Not unusual with the market having had a few days of upward movement. A good place to take some long position profits.