Tuesday, January 31, 2012

ES Futures - Morning A-B-C Pattern 01/31/12

We got a three-wave A-B-C pattern this morning to the downside. The correction wave didn't quite make it to the 50% mark, but the last impulse wave came close to the same magnitude length as the first swing wave.


Monday, January 30, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 01/30/12

Interestingly, as negative as the market appeared at the open, the $TICK did not reach - 800 this morning. It did reach + 800, however.

Usually, the first test of support or resistance, or the first correction in a possible trend change is usually the most profitable entry. The $TICK is a good indicator to spot when the correction or test is about over - see the arrows on the top 1-minute chart. Wait for the $TICK to go back to its long term moving average, then look for a continuation of the short term trend.


ES Futures Globex - Support Becomes Resistance 01/30/12

The ES Futures during the Globex session has dipped below S1 and its 10-day moving average. What was once support is now resistance. So far, the market is staying above S2.

Once again, European debt concerns is weakening markets worldwide.


Sunday, January 29, 2012

ES Futures - Descending Triangle Formation 01/27/12

Technical traders usually look at the descending triangle formation as a continuation pattern. However, on Friday, we got a reversal on the 5-minute chart. The market found support on the 10-day moving average and just above S1. Following the break of the descending triangle, the market gave us a symmetrical three-wave move to the upside. The three waves are called "The Initial Swing Wave - Correction Wave - Final Impulse Wave", which are the names given to this A-B-C wave formation by Tony Plummber.


Friday, January 27, 2012

ES Futures Weekend Charts 01/27/12


ES Futures Morning Session 01/27/12

The US economy grew less than expected, which convinced some traders to take some profits. However, the market is currently trying to form a base above its 10-day moving average and yesterday's low. This tug-of-war battle between bulls and bears prevented the market from trending very far in either direction this morning.


Tuesday, January 24, 2012

ES Futures Floor Trading Pivots For 01/25/12


ES Futures Morning Session 01/24/12

At 1030 ET, it looked like S1 would fail as support, but the 5-minute bars stayed above that support level, which encouraged the bulls to move the market toward the pivot. The market has also stayed above its 10-day moving average which is near S2. This indicates that the market is still bullish overall.


Friday, January 20, 2012

Weekend Charts 01/20/12

Not only the lowest range of the last 7 days (NR& day), it may be the lowest range of most of last year.


Thursday, January 19, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 01/19/12

We were due for a below average range. The market still has some bulls who jumped in on the test of yesterday's high. R1 is providing some resistance. Bullish momentum is a little less than yesterday with the $TICK making a lower high so far.


Wednesday, January 18, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 01/18/12

On a test of yesterday's low, the market refused to go below that point. After that, we got a green $TICK signal and a nice morning bull run to R1, which is also near yesterday's high. There's a good chance the market will close on the bullish side today.


Tuesday, January 17, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 01/17/12

The market gave us a profitable shorting opportunity this morning. However, Thursday's high is providing support for the moment.


Sunday, January 15, 2012

ES Futures and the Floor Trader Pivots 01/15/12

Playing around with some numbers on this slow weekend.

I looked over the last 2 years of ES futures data, and calculated the Floor Trader Pivots for each day using the time frame of 0930 to 1615 ET. I then looked at the % of time that the market closed between two Pivot lines versus when the market opened between two Pivot lines. The results are in the table above. The blue shaded cells are the percentage of time when the market opened and closed between the same two pivot lines.

Interestingly, when the market opens either between R2 and R1 or S1 and S2, the market closes in that same range only 18% of the time. In contrast, when the market opens either above R3 or between R3 and R2, the market closes in those same ranges 67 and 64% of the time, respectively. The other ranges vary from 32 to 38% of the time that the market opens and closes in the same range.

When the market opens above R3, it hasn't closed below the pivot. When it opens below S3, it hasn't closed above the pivot.

When the market opens between R3 and R2, it hasn't closed below S1. When the market opens between S2 and S3, it hasn't closed above R1.

For all data over the last two years, the market has closed in each range with the following percentage of the time:

Above R3 - 2%
Between R3 and R2 - 12%
Between R2 and R1 - 15%
Between R1 and Pivot - 28%
Between Pivot and S1 - 22%
Between S1 and S2 - 10%
Between S2 and S3 - 8%
Below S3 - 3%


Friday, January 13, 2012

Thursday, January 12, 2012

ES Futures Morning Scalping Setups 01/12/12

The market gave us a 3-wave move to the down side this morning.

Good places to look for continuation of a trend move and an end to a correction move is a 50% correction, and a move of the $TICK back to its moving average. A nice place to enter the trade is on the completion of a $TICK bar in the direction of the trend as indicated by the arrows in the top chart.

We also got a 2-point move on the test of S1 with a bullish divergence. However, the market has since broken through S1 to the down side.


Tuesday, January 10, 2012

ES Futures 01/10/12

Today's chart pattern has an uncanny similarity to the chart pattern of 01/03/12. Both days started with a large up gap.


ES Futures Globex Session 01/10/12

The Globex Session of the ES Futures is breaking to the upside of the 1280 - 1265 consolidation range of late. The market is also above R2.

Alcoa's better than expected revenues and speculation that China may try to increase their growth rate has encouraged the bulls.


Monday, January 9, 2012

ES Futures Morning Session 01/09/12

We got more consistent moves after the energy market open at 1000 ET. Traders so far are fading tests near Friday's high and low, and near R1 and S1. We are still within Friday's range.


Thursday, January 5, 2012

ES Futures End-of-Day Review 01/05/12

Another nice up trend in the middle of the day. The market continues to stay above its 10-day moving average, which is a bullish indication.


ES Futures Morning Session 01/05/12

The market is staying between S1 and S2. There is some profit taking in the equity market, but the buyers are keeping the market above its 10-day moving average for now.