Tuesday, June 30, 2009

End of Day Review 06/30/09

The market once again found support near the 908 - 910 area. The first nine days of July are statistically bullish. Watch the 908 area for support and 918 for resistance.

Early Morning Review 06/30/09

The cash market's high was almost exactly 930. A lower than expected Consumer Confidence number and possibly an end to investment fund's end-of-quarter buying has sent the market tumbling past short term support. Once the market traded past the overnight low, it acted as resistance. I prefer a 50% correction, but in strong trends you unfortunately do not always get that correction.

Monday, June 29, 2009

End of Day Review 06/29/09

As it turned out, the best trades in the afternoon were to fade the 924 area. Notice how the $TICK kept trending down slowly as the market challenged the resistance area.

Morning Review 06/29/09

The cash market is stalling just under the 930 resistance.

Buying entered the market a few points above a two day support level. Caught a few short sellers by surprise. Energy was the strong sector early in the trading session. True buying will be needed to lift the market past the current resistance level.

PreMarket Review 06/29/09

Friday was a Doji day with a narrow range. The market is setting itself up for a range expansion day.

If the cash market doesn't break past the 930 level, it will be forming a Head and Shoulders pattern, which would be bearish.

Overnight the market has tested both short term support and resistance with no break in either direction. No significant economic news today.


Friday, June 26, 2009

Morning Revew 06/26/09

Not a lot to say about this morning's market. After yesterday's range expansion to the upside, today is much less volatile and happy in a narrow range.
The market keeps testing the 909 area with bullish divergences at this point. However, there is not a lot of buying pressure to raise the market very far. This morning's market was only good for trading the narrow range extremes or small scalping trades.

Thursday, June 25, 2009

End of Day Review 06/25/09

Potential long trades occurred on tests of key areas of support.

Morning Review 06/25/09

A strong, bullish $TICK divergence as the market tested yesterday's low. 891 is holding as support, and 906.75 is still resistance.
The market is statistically bullish the next two and a half weeks.

Traders Audio Webinars 06/25/09

Above are the links of the recent Webinars between Ben Lichtenstein and Tom Alexander on Market Profile.

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

End of Day Review 06/24/09

The good news is that the market found support exactly in the middle of that consolidation zone. Will have to wait to see if it holds.

First Hour 06/24/09

We are experiencing the opposite of several days ago when 910.75 support broke. Today 895.25 resistance broke and the market is racing to the upside.

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Morning Review 06/23/09

The day following a day like yesterday usually has a more narrow range, and 67% of the time, the market will close above its open. So far, we do have a more narrow range than yesterday, but the market is below its open.

PreMarket Review 06/23/09

The September Contract is still selling near a 4.5 point discount to the cash market, and the December Contract is selling at a 4 point discount to the September Contract. The market is still not very bullish on its future prospects.

The 877 area in the cash market is still support.

In the overnight market, 895.25 is resistance and 887.75 is support. The market overnight didn't try to push the market to a 50% correction of yesterday's range, which is bearish. We have a FOMC announcement tomorrow afternoon.


Monday, June 22, 2009

Morning Review 06/22/09

Once 910.75 was broke early this morning, there is been little upside pressure creating a strong down trend morning.
A little hard to stay focused on the market with most of my attention on the final round of the US Open.

Friday, June 19, 2009

End of Day Review 06/19/09

Just before lunch, yesterday's high became resistance. A good short entry is on the test of that resistance as the $TICK trends down following an upward correction. In the Afternoon, the market found support at yesterday afternoon's low pivot. Good bullish $TICK divergence signal on the test of this low pivot.

Morning Review 06/19/09

Market is consolidating between the high of 6/16/09 and yesterday's high.

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Afternoon Review 06/18/09

I changed the blue line to a 5-period SMA of the pivot (H+L+C)/3. This gave a couple of divergences in the afternoon near the VWAP line after the energy market close, and then later near the day's high.

Morning Review 06/18/09

Just didn't have a good feel for the market this morning. The market got a good bounce to the upside on economic reports that it apparently liked, but found resistance near yesterday's high. Didn't see good $TICK divergent signals today. Financials are doing pretty good, and VIX is trying to go back into bullish territory, but Energy and Technology are weak. So far, there is resistance at yesterday's high and support at the VWAP line.

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

End of Day Review 06/17/09

Nice bounce off the Yearly Open, but found resistance just under the 915 pivot.

Morning Review 06/17/09

The cash market is trying to bounce off of the 903 mark. The futures are trading at a discount to cash as it has been since the fall of 2007.
Financials and Energy are very weak, but Technology and Discretionaries are doing relatively well. We are still in a downtrend, but the selling may be losing some steam.

Before the Opening Bell 06/17/09

We will have to wait and see if the market forms a support base just above 903, which is the current support level. However, we are still in a down trend. The only economic report left for today is the crude report at 1030 ET.

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

End of Day Review 06/16/09

The market is still in a down trending mode, so bearish $TICK divergences were the high probability trades of the day.

European Market Close 06/16/09

Once again as the market test the 0930 ET Open while the European Market closes, we get another $TICK bearish divergence.

First Hour Review 06/16/09

As the market tested the 0930 ET Open several times, Financials and Energy Sectors were trending down. $TICK could not make a higher high than yesterday's high, and it also started trending down on each market attempt to trade above the open. The market is currently remaining in a narrow range.

Before the Bell Review 06/16/09

No more economic reports for the rest of the day. The market most of the morning has stayed above its VWAP line, and has corrected 50% of yesterday's range. June's open price is holding as support, and the market has completed a two-day, three-wave correction.
The last ten days of June is statistically bearish with typically five ups days and five down days. The July and August periods are typically a sideways market with the third week of July being a sell off week.
After the open, let's see if the market test either the overnight low or yesterday's low.

Monday, June 15, 2009

End of Day Review 06/15/09

The Cash Market is trying to make June's Open support. This morning I forgot that 903 was the yearly open, so MAX is correct saying that 903 is support below June's open.
The market closed in the bottom 25% of today's range, but greater than the bottom 20%. Will do some statistical analysis tonight to see what tomorrow should look like statistically.

Morning Review 06/15/09

I did short the market on that 50% correction, but did not hold on to the position as long as I should have. The market was really slow in selling back down, so I took a modest profit. Well, a modest profit is better than a loss.

Before The Bell 06/15/09

The futures market is currently staying just above the cash Index's May high of 930. Also, notice that the cash market is stayed above the 923.26 low of the breakout bar. A high volume close below this level would probably bring about a test of the 879 level.
The overnight futures market is trading in a zone between the May high and Friday's low.