Saturday, May 29, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/28/10

The cash market retreated from its 200-day moving average, and the futures retreated slightly from its 10-day moving average to remain in the lower Keltner Channel on the daily charts. The retreat Friday didn't go very far, and the range remained below average. We have to wait until Tuesday to see if the market challenges Thursday's highs. A lot depends on what happens in Europe over the weekend.

Friday, May 28, 2010

ES Futures Morning Review 05/28/10

Yesterday was an above average range day, and today we get the usual below average range morning. This means that test of resistance especially with a $TICK divergence usually gives a high probability reversal trade. This morning the 0930 ET open, the close of yesterday and the first half hour high were the same resistance area. After 1015 ET when the market tested this area several times, we got that $TICK divergence, and the market traded down. I probably will not trade this afternoon, and start the 3-day weekend early.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/28/10

In the US, this is the last trading day of May, since all US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. Also, the bond market closed an hour earlier this afternoon. The overnight market has stayed in a relatively narrow range of 1106.75 to 1096.50. The market is also fairly close to yesterday's close of 1100.50. No large gaps today.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/27/10

The cash market is testing its 200-day moving average. I was hoping for an afternoon correction larger than what we got, but the market lazily stayed above the overnight high with a late rally past afternoon resistance.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/27/10

Since a little after 1000 ET, the market has stayed above its VWAP line, but is stalling right at the 10-period moving average on the daily chart. Stalemate.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/27/10

The foreign markets overnight were bullish for a change. The market, however, is still meeting resistance in the 1092 - 1089 area. Overnight support is 1055.50. On the daily chart, the market is still below its 10-period moving average.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/26/10

The market tried to stay above yesterday's close, but the final 45 to 30 minutes saw more selling than buying. After 1515 ET, the market could not form a bullish 3-wave pattern. Thus the down trend continued to the close.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/26/10

We had an above average range yesterday, and this morning we get a less than average range, which is the typical rule.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/26/10

So far, the market is unwilling to trade past the 1088.75 pivot high of a few days ago. The overnight support is 1070.50. Yesterday's close at 1072.50 may also act as support.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/25/10

After the morning session, I didn't think that the market had enough bullish sentiment to close the gap. However, at 1400 ET, the market started its usual counter trend correction, but kept going all the way to the close in a continuous up trend. And the gap was closed.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/25/10

Following the initial panic selling, the market has tried to advance toward yesterday's close, but it is struggling to advance past 1056. However, it has stayed above the 0930 ET open most of the morning as we get rid of the bearish European markets.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/25/10

We have another large gap going into the open - over 27 handles. It will be interesting to see if buyers and short covering step up to the plate to close the gap even half way. Right now, Friday's close of 1051.25 is resistance.

Monday, May 24, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/24/10

During lunch the market kept testing the overnight high, but lost bullish momentum. The morning low looked like it would hold as support, but following the completion of the small 3-wave formation, the market took an interesting little tumble to the bearish side of things. However, the market did stay above Friday's low.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/24/10

A slow paced market in a narrow range. The overnight high is acting as resistance while the market is currently fluttering around its VWAP Line.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/24/10

The overnight futures has stayed withing Friday's range. This also means that the cash index will still be below its 200 day average.

Friday, May 21, 2010

ES Futures Morning Review 05/21/10

The market apparently reached a level that buyers considered value. The usual 1000 ET correction stayed above the 50% retracement level.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/21/10

The market again has made a lower low overnight. We are currently about 7 handles below yesterday's close of 1069.50. The silver lining may be that the gap is smaller than yesterday's gap. Overnight support is at 1057.50.

ES Futures Afternoon Session Charts 05/20/10

Above is Thursday's afternoon session chart. The market stayed above the morning low until the very end. We still have a large unclosed gap.

Thursday, May 20, 2010

ES Futures Morning Review 05/20/10

Again we got a sell off after 1000 ET as the Energy pit started trading. However, we didn't get the usual 3-wave follow through. Instead, the market has traded back to its VWAP line, and is testing the first half-hour low. We still have a large unclosed gap.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/20/10

If the S&P 500 cash index trades below 1044.50, the probably increases that the market will visit the 945 area. Currently, the futures is will below yesterday's low of 1098.75.

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/19/10

The afternoon market was able to trade up from the day's low, but could not get past yesterday's close of 1118.25. The market finished near its VWAP Line for the day.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/19/10

The 1000 to 1030 ET sellers are still around. At least the market was able to close the gap. But just before the opening of the Energy market, the bears took control. Since then the VWAP Line has been resistance.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/19/10

The overnight market is still below yesterday's close of 1118.25, but has narrowed the gap from the overnight low of 1104.75. The overnight high is 1118.25.

Tuesday, May 18, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/18/10

The day turned out more bearish than I was anticipating. The cash market closed just above the 2010 open price.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/18/10

The A - B line is the down wave that tested the 1140 level. We got a bullish divergence, which led to the 62% correction ( B - C line ) and test of the VWAP Line. At point D, the market starts to trade past the 62% correction level, which may indicate a continuation of the A - B down wave. Today, it was the continuation of a down movement which eventually closed the opening gap. Currently, the market is again testing the 1140 level.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/18/10

The overnight market has been able to trade above the 1140 level. After the open, there may be an attempt to close the opening gap from yesterday's close of 1134.75.

Monday, May 17, 2010

ES Fultures End of Day Review 05/17/10

The cash market bounced off of the 2010 open on the daily chart.

I didn't feel confortable with the afternoon session. I hoped that the last half hour would give us a 3-wave move, but we got a one wave surge instead. So I didn't do much trading in the afternoon.


ES Futures Morning Review 05/17/10

Deep down I was probably hoping for the market to trade above 1140. While watching the market trade at 1140.25, it was obvious that there was very little volume at that price. So down the market went. On the 62% correction, we didn't get a divergence signal, but the market refused to trade above that level, which gave the market an opportunity to complete the 3-wave symmetry. We are still below the first hour low.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/17/10

The 1140 level is still resistance. The overnight range is from 1120.25 to 1140, which marks overnight support and resistance.

Saturday, May 15, 2010

ES Futures Friday Review 05/14/10

I wasn't able to trade the afternoon session, so the afternoon chart is a look back at what I missed.

In the morning session, the market was not able to close the opening gap and fell below the 05/11/10 pivot low of 1140.50. After 1000 ET, the market tested that pivot low several times but was not able to penetrate that price level, and we got a bearish $TICK divergence on the second test of 1140.50. The market then fell below the pivot low of the first hour (1132.25), which then became resistance.

The afternoon session had the market testing the first hour low and the morning low (1125.50). The morning low on several tests acted as support. In the last half hour of trading, the market gave us a nice 3-wave formation with a 62% correction that happened to be right at the morning low pivot. The market then retraced back and slightly beyond the VWAP Line.


Friday, May 14, 2010

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/14/10

The market so far is staying above the 1140.50 level with improving retail sales. The effect of Europe's problems on the rest of the global economy is still uncertain. The overnight range is from 1159.50 to 1144.25. The market is still in bearish mode.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/13/10

Interesting tumble in the last hour, but it is not as bad as it looked. The market is still above the lows of the last two days.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/13/10

During the first 10 minutes, I was starting to have doubts that the market would close the gap. But it did. After that, longs took profits on the test of yesterday's high at 1171.25, which is about 3 handles below the overnight high of 1174.75. The market is now back to oscillating around the VWAP line.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/13/10

The overnight market is staying relatively close to yesterday's close of 1169.75. Its trying to find value between the overnight range of 1174.75 and 1165.25.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/12/10

The market was able to close in the upper Keltner Channel on the Daily Chart. This is the second below average range day in a row, so we may see range expansion soon.

ES Futures Morning Review 05/12/10

In the first 25 minutes of trading, the overnight high did offer resistance, but the market was unable to close the gap. The 1160 resistance then failed. We then got a bearish $TICK divergence when the market came withing 2 handles of yesterday's high at 1169. That has led to a down turn, but the market is still above the 1160 level thus far. However, it is below the VWAP line.

ES Futures Premarket Review 05/12/10

The overnight market stayed within yesterday's range. A break out of that range may be significant. The overnight range thus far is 1160 to 1141. Watch for the market reaction to the test of yesterday's range.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

ES Futures End of Day Review 05/11/10

We finally have a below average range, and the market has closed below the 10-period EMA on the daily chart. Otherwise, an interesting day with the Advance - Decline Line having a low of -1748 and a high of +1433 in one day. Another reversal going into the Energy Market close, and a relatively weak finish.