Thursday, December 31, 2009

Early Morning Review 12/31/09

The market decided to break to the downside rather than the upside. All resistance levels held during the downtrend. Statistically, this day is usually a down day, along with the first trading day of January. Then the market is usually bullish for a few weeks after that.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/31/09

The last trading day of 2009.

The market is currently above the Points of Control for Monday through Wednesday. So the 1124 area may act as support + or - a few points. Most of the action should occur early in the morning as many traders are already on holiday vacation, and the others will probably leave early for the New Year.

Everyone stay safe.


Wednesday, December 30, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/30/09

Well, the market didn't retest the 1113 area. We did get an early afternoon three-wave correction back to the 0930 ET open. In the last half-hour, the market broke to the upside this time, but didn't go very far.

Another shortened day tomorrow, and the last trading day of the year.


ES Futures - Morning Session Review 12/30/09

The market found resistance just under yesterday's Point of Control. At that point, we also got a bearish $TICK divergence with another 1000 to 1100 ET three-wave correction. This time the market traded back to the 0930 ET Open.

ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/30/09

A week or two ago, the 1111 - 1113 area was resistance. It is now support, and that is where the overnight market has made its low. It will probably be tested again.

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/29/09

We did end up with a weaker day, and a close below today's Point of Control. In the last 30 minutes, the market showed its hand with a downtrending $TICK and prices starting to make lower lows rather than higher highs. This led to a down trending close.

ES Futures - Morning Review 12/29/09

Mostly technical trading today. On the test of yesterday's high, we got a bearish divergenc, which sent the market down to test the overnight low. At the overnight low, we are seeing a weakening of the selling pressure. At this leve, we are also at yesterday's Point of Control, which may provide some support.

ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/29/09

Once again, the overnight market broke resistance. 1126.25 is now support. However, one little sign of caution is that the $TICK moving average on the 15-minute chart is showing signs of sloping in the downward direction.

Monday, December 28, 2009

The late afternoon bulls haven't gone away. After the 1122 support failed, the market found support, and the late afternoon buyers entered the market once again.

ES Futures - Morning Session Review 12/28/09

We got the three-wave correction back to the 1122 support level. At support, we got a bullish $TICK divergence with the market trading, not very far, back to the VWAP Line.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/28/09

The market is staying above the 1122 support level, which is also just above Thursday's Point of Control. The moving averages for the NYSE Advance - Decline Line and $TICK are showing no bearish divergences. Everything is still bullish.


Friday, December 25, 2009

ES Futures - Christmas Charts 12/25/09

Well the market went into the Christmas season with cheer. 1120 is acting as support, and the market closed above the Christmas Eve Point of Control.

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Christmas Eve PreMarket Review 12/24/09

There is only a morning session of trading today. Typically a slightly down to neutral day. The overnight market has pretty much stayed between the 1115.75 support, which will probably be tested again, and 1120 resistance. Not expecting much action today.

Wednesday, December 23, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/23/09

Not a lot of action in the afternoon, and I wasn't expecting much action. The short session tomorrow will probably be equally boring as most traders are getting ready for the holidays. The market stayed above yesterday's Point of Control, and buyers were only interested in entering the market near the VWAP Line.

ES Futures - Morning VWAP Line 12/23/09

Here is a situation using the VWAP Line and Fibonacci to trade a 3-wave pattern. We get a tumble on the Housing data, the market corrects to the VWAP Line, which is also near the 50% coorection level, and then the market gives us the third down wave. We missed perfect symmetry by one and a half points, but still a usually reliable trade.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/23/09

If the market remains bullish this morning, it should find support between yesterday's Point of Control near 1113 and yesterday's high of 1115.75. Got another economic report at 1000 ET.

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/22/09

The market found support at yesterday's Point of Control. The market was too bullish to trade past this point. The market did, however, stay in a very narrrow range as expected.

In the afternoon session, we did get a bearish $TICK divergence as the market was testing the overnight high. Again, this traded the market back down to the 0930 ET open.


ES Futures - Mid Morning Review 12/22/09

Yesterday we got a range expansion, which means that today is more than likely to be a smaller range day. That also means that fading the highs and lows is more likely to result in a successful trade. This morning as the market kept testing the 1115.75 high, the $TICK was showing a slowing in upward momentum. Around 1030 ET, the market finally fell back to the 0930 ET open price.


Monday, December 21, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/21/09

The market once again is fading the one-month high near 1113. The bullish divergenc in the afternoon near the VWAP line only gave us a 50% correction of the down swing wave. The market then closed below its Point of Control for today.

ES Futures - Morning Review 12/21/09

Not a whole lot of analysis here. At the open, the market bounced off the 1102 - 1102.75 support level and went straight up.


ES Futures - Premarket Review 12/21/09

The sun is at its southern most point, and will be heading back north after today. I hate this day because it is the darkest day of the year, but also like it because I know that the daylight hours will be getting longer after today.

The market jumped up 6 points from Friday's close continuing Friday afternoon's bullish sentiment. No economic reports today, and we should see this entire week with low volume. This week is also typically bullish for large caps.


Saturday, December 19, 2009

Where The Readers Are

So interesting information on where the readers of this blog are located. The data is for the past month.

What is interesting about the world map is the lack of readers, with the exception of India, Guatemala, Pakistan, Myanmar and Malaysia, within the Tropic of Cancer and the Tropic of Capricorn. That would make an interesting sociological study by some graduate student.

In the US, the top five states are Illinois, New York, California, Pennsylvania and Florida. States with no readers represented are Maine, North Dakota, Wyoming, Alaska, Alabama and Mississippi.

Friday, December 18, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/18/09

We got a bullish close above today's Point of Control.

We also got a bullish surge near the end of the day witha bullish A - D Line divergence.

Next week is statistically bullish for large caps. Today's close is a good start.


ES Futures - Morning Review 12/18/09

The one alarm bell this morning was the weakness in the Consumer Discretionary Sector. That sector up to today has been relatively stronger than the rest of the market. Its weakness this morning was a warning sign. One support level after another fell. Support then becomes resistance.

ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/18/09

A lot of contracts expire today.

Overnight the market corrected 50% of yesterday's down wave. Currently, we have support at 1090.75 and resistance at 1102.75. No economic reports today.


ES Futures - 5 Min Chart Analysis 12/17/09

I may start doing a 5-minute chart analysis at the end of the day. It gives a better and bigger picture of what happened.

In strong down trending markets, the NYSE Advance - Decline Line typically will go below -2000 and stay there. Yesterday, it stayed above that level. As the futures was making a lower low, the A - D Line remained above its morning low. The first up 5-minute bar on the futures at the day's low led to a nice uptrend back to the resistance line, which was the overnight low. At the resistance line, hammers and down bars signaled a short-term downtrend back to the day's low. However, the A - D Line remained in an uptrend into the close, and after the close, the futures bounced back to the upside.


Thursday, December 17, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/17/09

The dip below the morning's low with the V reversal was interesting. The 1091 area is the top of a volume area created on 12/9 and 12/10. I guess somebody thought that that was a good place to initiate a buy program. The market bounced off that price again after the 1600 ET close to bring the market back to today's Point of Control. The 1091 area will probably be tested again.

ES Futures - Morning Review 12/17/09

The market is currently in the process of testing the morning low again.

The market did dip below the overnight low. However, the NYSE Advance - Decline Line stayed above the -2000 level, and the $TICK started showing a possible short-term momentum change to the upside. This led to a three-wave correction with the second wave lasting about 34 minutes this time.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 12/17/09

The market is now at the 50% correction of the last up wave. We will have to wait until after the open to see how the market reacts to this price level. If it treats it as support, it should form a small range on top of this support level. If that happens, a breakout to the upside of that range would be bullish. A down side break would be bearish.


Wednesday, December 16, 2009

ES Futures - End of Day Review 12/16/09

I didn't do this, but I should have. Today was a good example of doing the 3 to 1 trade. Short on test of the overnight high with a multiple of 3 contracts position, liquidate 2 contracts when the market goes in your favor around 2 points, and then hold on to the last contract in case the market keeps going south. Place your stop on that 1 contract so that the total transaction is profitable in case that last contract gets stopped out for a small loss. Today, the market faded the overnight high, and ended up testing the overnight low.


ES Futures - Morning Review 12/16/09

The market has a bullish bias, but is staying below the overnight high. Most I suspect on staying on the sidelines until they hear the FOMC announcement this afternoon. At the moment, the advance in testing the overnight high is lackluster.