Saturday, October 31, 2009

Dream Catchers

About 20 years ago, I was able to visit the Chaco ruins and Navajo Reservation in New Mexico. In a place that is pretty close to the middle of nowhere in the continental US is a little town called Tohatchi. This is where you will find the St. Mary Mission.

One of the things that the St. Mary Mission does is promote Navajo Arts and Crafts in which the proceeds help to

  • Provide clothing and Christmas toys for those in need
  • Donate blankets, hats and gloves to the needy
  • Attend to the needs of the homeless at the Mother Teresa's Sisters' shelter in Gallup, NM
  • Provide newborn clothing to new mothers
  • Provide financial assistance to the elderly

I bought the Arrow Head Dream Catcher from their store a few years ago, and have it hung on my bedroom wall. The craftsmanship is excellent.

If you are interested in Navajo Arts and Crafts, please visit the St. Mary Mission on-line store.


Friday, October 30, 2009

ES Emini Futures End Of Day Review 10/30/09

The Point of Control today is around 1035.50. Interestingly, the $TICK moving average on the 15-minute chart did not go down as far as it went up on Thursday. We will have to wait and see if this foretells a true bullish divergence. I won't be too bullish until I see the market convincingly trading above 1035.50 with that level holding as support on test.

Not A Narrow Range Day 10/30/09

The last hour of European trading turned into a real bear.

  • The market stayed below yesterday's Point of Control most of the day.
  • Yesterday's second high volume area near 1052.50 tried to provide support but failed.
  • At 1130 ET, the market was indicating a bullish $TICK divergence, but that failed also.
  • Also, the Dow Transports is making a monthly low, which is bearish.
  • The dollar is strengthening again.
  • And the NYSE Advance - Decline Line and the TRIN were in bear territory all day.

The bulls simply had to give up.


ES Emini Futures PreMarket Review 10/30/09

The market is testing the overnight low. Yesterday's volume distribution formed a "B" shape with the upper section the Point of Control. The market is currently below the control point, but above the lower volume ledge.

It would be natural for a 50% correction of yesterday's range, but a correction more than 78% would be bearish.

We still have the Chicago PMI at 0945 ET and Consumer Sentiment at 0955 ET.


Thursday, October 29, 2009

ES Emini Futures End of Day Review 10/29/09

The market kept going until it reached Tuesday's Point of Control. The close was bullish by ending up in the top 25% of today's range, and above today's Point of Control.

We have had two days of above average ranges. The market may take a breather tomorrow, and stay in a more narrow range. Unless some economic news story gets it exited again.

ES Emini Futures Morning Activity 10/29/09

After the "C" period or the first 45 minutes of trading, yesterday's Point of Control became support, and held as support on a test. After that the most recent pivot high became support, and the market is now trending upward following the close of European trading.

ES Emini Futures PreMarket Review 10/29/09

All the earnings reports this morning didn't tank the market, and the market became bullish over the Jobless Claims Report.

The market is now about 1 point above yesterday's Point of Control, and in the middle of the Value Area. If the market continues to trade above this level, it will become support.


Wednesday, October 28, 2009

ES Emini Futures Afternoon Session 10/28/09

Nothing special about the afternoon session involving technical analysis. Just a slow and methodical trend to the downside. The market ends at the bottom of its range. Buyers aren't ready to jump in yet.

ES Emini Futures Morning Activity 10/28/09

Sellers entered the market as it tested Monday and Tuesday's Point of Control price levels.

The market was able to close the opening gap, but found resistance at that level. Between 1015 and 1045 ET, there was a struggle between the bulls and bears. I thought that the market might find support at the overnight low, but the buying activity was timid at best, and the Overnight Low support collapsed.

The overnight low then became resistance, and the market faded on the test of that resistance without any $TICK divergence. We have had several $TICK bullish divergences, but the market has only been able to correct to the upside a few points. Bears are still in control.


ES Emini Futures PreMarket Review 10/28/09

The market bounced a little off its low following the release of the Durable Goods Orders report. However, yesterday's low is still acting as resistance.

The market remains below yesterday's Value Area, and is still bearish.

New Home Sales at 1000 ET.


Tuesday, October 27, 2009

ES Emini Futures Afternoon Session 10/27/09

Narrow range and symmetrical day. The close below today's Point of Control is a negative.

The market staying in a narrow range made fading the morning's extremes successful trades.

We should see range expansion in the next day or two.


ES Emini Futures Morning Review 10/27/09

Well, we got through the European close and stayed within a narrow range. Most of the mornings activity stayed within yesterday's Value Area.

When you see a drop like the one that occurred after the release of the Consumer Confidence Report, it is hard to believe that the market will stay in a narrow range. But it did.


ES Emini Futures Premarket Review 10/27/09

The ES Futures is at yesterday's Point of Control. Overnight trading did not continue the bearish momentum of yesterday, but neither did it advance to the upside very far. We may see a narrow range today, but not a guarantee.

ES Futures Pivot Low Resistance

Another landmark for trading opportunities are Pivot Low Resistance and Pivot High Support.

In the afternoon session, we had a bear environment in which the market responded to Pivot Low Resistance. The better shorting opportunities were test of Pivot Lows, and on the downward slide following the test of those Pivot Lows.

On the downward slides, good entry points were on the $TICK test of the upper Bollinger Bands.


Monday, October 26, 2009

End of Day ES Emini Futures Review 10/26/09

I didn't follow the afternoon session all the closely. It ended up being a low volume afternoon with a bearish bias.

The market ended up at its Point of Control for today. However, the Value Area is below a multi-day range, which is now resistance. We will have to wait to see the overseas reaction to today's sell off.


Interesting Tumble

Out of the blue, the dollar shoots up, and oil and equities get dumped. The wonderful world of computerized trading. Some variable got crossed, and all markets get turned upside down for no real reason.

Early ES Emini Futures Surge 10/26/09

Buyers came in right on top of Friday's Point of Control price, and drove the market to the upside. The mini futures gave us a good entry point on a 50% correction of the early surge to the upside.

Remember that the last week of October is typically bullish.


PreMarket ES Emini Futures Review 10/26/09

The market is staying above both Friday's close and Point of Control, which is bullish. Most of the overnight trading has stayed in the upper portion of Friday's Value Area.


Friday, October 23, 2009

End Of Day ES Futures Review 10/23/09

The good news is that the market closed just above its high volume ledge. The last week of October is statistically bullish.

Most of the afternoon, the market stayed below the technical resistance, but above yesterday's low.

Going into the energy market close, we got a bullish $TICK divergence, but then a bearish divergence at the technical resistance.

Swing traders may have lifted the market in the last 20 minutes.


Morning ES Futures Review 10/23/09

Once the market traded below yesterday's day session high, it couldn't cross that line again, even with good housing news.

At yesterday's high volume price near 1080, we did get a bullish $TICK divergence, but it couldn't hold as support as the European markets closed for the weekend.

Europe goes on Standard Time Sunday as the US stays on Savings Time one more week.


PreMarket ES Futures Review 10/23/09

As Bernanke answers questions, the market is a few ticks above Wednesday's Point-of-Control and testing the overnight high. It is also above yesterday's day session high. One danger is that at the current price of 1095, the futures is far from yesterday's high volume area of 1078 to 1080.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

End of Day ES Futures Review 10/22/09

The market loves to surprise traders, and Market Profile wins again.

I really didn't think that the market had much of a chance to test yesterday's Point-of-Control area based on yesterday's high volume sell off. But as Market Profile points out, the market likes to retest or go back to where the volume was recently. And that is what the market did today.

May wonders never cease.


Morning ES Futures Review 10/22/09

Again, the morning following a wide range day sees a narrow range market. This scenario leads to a higher probability of success on $TICK divergences.

We got a bullish divergence on a test of the overnight low. On the retest of that low, it held as support as the market traded back to and eventually above its VWAP line, and the 1077 technical resistance / support price.


PreMarket ES Futures Review 10/22/09

Following the 0930 ET Economic Reports, the ES Futures is struggling to stay above the 1077 price level.
If the market rallies to the upside, look for resistance near the 38 or 50% correction level, 1082.25 and 1085.25 respectively.

Wednesday, October 21, 2009

End of Day Es Futures Review 10/21/09

I developed a technical difficulty this morning that prevented me from trading today. So this is a look back at a market that I did not follow today.
The selling in the last hour did stop at that late September pivot high. We will find out tomorrow if that support level holds. The futures at the moment is staying above today's low.
Looks like some big guns decided to cash in some long chips in the last hour.

PreMarket ES Futures Review 10/21/09

Even with a good earnings report from Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley, the market still has a slight bearish tone. It is currently at or slightly below yesterday's Point-of-Control. Earlier the market did test yesterday's day session low as well as Friday's lower high volume price. The Wells Fargo news did lift the market a little, but not a whole lot.

Yesterday's Point-of-Control is resistance unless the market trades above it.


Tuesday, October 20, 2009

End of Day ES Futures Review 10/20/09

The market did close above today's Point-of-Control price. The after hours market is currently staying just above this high volume ledge.

As the market tested yesterday's day session low, we didn't get a $TICK divergence. However, selling pressure dried up enough to allow the market to trade back to its VWAP line.
At that point, I was only expecting perhaps a 2-point pop up. But the market kept going to the upside - without me.

Morning ES Futures Review 10/20/09

For most of the morning, the ES Futures stayed above Friday's High Volume ledge. However, as I am writing this blog, the market is trading into that range.
The $TICK could not go above 600. Fading the 600 $TICK tests was the better strategy of the morning. Everytime the $TICK reached 600, buying dried up.

PreMarket ES Futures Review 10/20/09

Earnings drove the overnight market up, and then the PPI drove the market down.
We are below yesterday's high volume area of 1093.75 to 1095.25, which is resistance. We are also above yesterday's close of 1090.75, and yesterday's early morning activity high of 1089.75, which is support.
The market must decide what is more important: earnings or PPI.

Monday, October 19, 2009

End of Day ES Futures Review 10/19/09

The market closed below today's high volume area. However, currently, after the release of Apple's earnings, the market is now above this area. Let's see if it holds overnight.

Morning ES Futures Review 10/19/09

The ES futures found support a few points lower than I was anticipating. It did find support above the lower high volume area created on Friday morning.

After the market found support, buyers jumped into the market on the first $TICK correction to the lower band.

PreMarket Outlook For The ES Futures 10/19/09

Overnight the market has traded up past both Thursday and Friday's Point-of-Control high volume prices.
If the market remains here until the 0930 ET open, we should see support on any test of the 1086.50 to 1085.00 range.
Apple and Texas Instruments report after the market close today.
There is a Housing Market Index report at 1300 ET.

Sunday, October 18, 2009

Health And Fitness Blog

As I approach my golden years, staying fit is becoming a hobby of mine. Some of you may find the information that I am accumulating in a new blog useful.


Friday, October 16, 2009

Multi-Day Support Holds 10/16/09

Today's market made two high volume areas with the close between the two. The market also stayed below yesterday's high volume area.

The market stayed above the multi-day support.

Apple and Texas Instruments report after the market close on Monday.