Friday, January 29, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/29/10

The market didn't quite make it to 1060, but it is getting closer. When you have a trending market, it has a tendency to make these Nicholas Darvas Boxes - step wise trends. The market will flutter inside these boxes until it decides to breakout and form another box.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/29/10

The market may find support in the middle of yesterday's high volume area. It is currently testing that area.
Even with the better economic reports, we still have sellers liquidating their holdings and selling on strength.

ES Futures - Premarket Review 01/29/10

The market has traded back into that 1103 - 1081 range and back above that 1081 resistance. We also have volume support between 1081 and 1086. The first 30 minutes will give us a good idea if bulls are coming back into the market or not.

Thursday, January 28, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/28/10

The Point of Control lies between 1080.75 - 1085.75.
The afternoon uptrend exhausted itself out at the 50% correction point as indentified on the 60 minute chart above. After that, the market tumbled down to the close.
Before the exhaustion, we got a series of 3-wave moves both up and down for some technical trading opportunities.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/28/10

Everything has been red most of the morning. The market tried to find support at yesterday's Point of Control (1085.75), but there was very little bullish desire at that support level. The market may eventually test at least the 1060 area or lower. Is the market voting "No Confidence" in our politicians?

ES Futures - Premarket Review 01/28/10

We are still in the sideways trading range between 1103 and 1081; albeit the upper end of that range testing the high. At the moment, 1103 is still resistance.

Wednesday, January 27, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/27/10

It has been a while since I have said this, but the market has closed above its Point of Control. We had a couple of bullish breakouts following the FOMC Announcement for a strong finish to the day.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/27/10

The market is acting like it is trying to form a bottom. However, stocks that normally track the index fairly well like IBM and XOM are still trending down. Using the 8 spider sectors and the top 5 holdings of each spider, only 3 of the 40 are above their 9-period EMA - BA, MCD, AMGN.
We did get a bounce off of 1081 without a divergence signal. So far, the bullish bounce doesn't look too promising.

ES Futures - PreMarket Review 01/27/10

Poor guidance by Catepillar has tumbled the market a little. However, it is still above the overnight low of 1083.25. The market may test either the 1083.25 level or the 1081 overnight low of yesterday while waiting for the FOMC Announcement at 1415 ET.

Tuesday, January 26, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/26/10

I really thought that we might have a strong close. However, sell orders ruled the close. The first Bear omen was the 50-period $TICK MA dipping below zero. It was downhill from there. We almost had an even distribution of volume across the entire range, but we will call the Point of Control 1097.25.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/26/10

A better Consumer Confidence Report sent the market back to yesterday's Point of Control. That price level is still resistance.

We are seeing a bullish $TICK MA divergence on the 15-minute chart.

The Consumer Confidence report encouraged the bulls, and gave us a nice pop back to yesterday's Point of Control.


ES Futures - PreMarket Review 01/26/10

Overnight the market broke to the downside of yesterday's range. Yesterday's volume ledge is still resistance. As long as the market stays below volume resistance, it remains in bear mode.

Monday, January 25, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/25/10

We stayed in the narrow range all day. Look for a breakout of today's range.

The last 30 minutes looked like it might have a strong finish. It is hard to know if there is going to be strong fund buying or selling in those last minutes. Apparently, today there was a lack of fund buying to close the market. First the $TICK made a lower low, then followed by the futures. But the market remained within today's range.

ES Futures - Morning Review 012510

Now we get a narrow range market, and with it a lot of whipsaw action. We are still below Friday's Point of Control, which is bearish. The VIX most of the morning was neutral, but now is turning bearish. The $TICK is also more bearish than bullish.

ES Futures - Premarket Review 01/25/10

We have a large volume ledge from 1105.75 to 1109.75, which is resistance. We have a slightly smaller resistance volume ledge between 1100 to 1105.75.

After correcting 5%, we have a small overnight bounce to the upsside, but the market is staying below Friday's volume resistance. Overnight high is 1103.

Friday, January 22, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/22/10

Large funds probably had a lot of sell orders to process before the market close. VIX exponentially vaulted into bear territory in the afternoon. The market made a lower low around 1440 ET, and kept going down. The market closed well below the Point of Control.

ES Futures - Lunch 01/22/10

Setup for long trade - VIX in bullish territory, Bullish $TICK divergence and then a $TICK MA cross. +2 point trade.
The market may stay in a narrow range today. We are overdue for a narrow range day.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/22/10

Around 1045 ET, the VIX started to turn green (closed below its MIDAS Average). This didn't happen yesterday, which was a strong bear trend.

We got a bullish up move with a 50% correction. Many times the market in this situation will retest the morning low. However, this time the $TICK turned bullish again following the 50% correction. This is not the time to short. With the VIX flirting with its Midas Avg and the $TICK turning bullish, the market turned up giving us a three-wave bullish move. The low pivot at the 50% correction is a good stop if you go long when the bars turned green (indicating an uptrending $TICK).

ES Futures - Early Morning 1 Min Chart 01/22/10

The market closed the opening gap, but found resistance just below yesterday's Point of Control area. The bars are colored based on whether the $TICK's 15-period MA is above or below the 50-period MA. Green for above, and red for below. We got a $TICK correction to the upside for a little over 50%, and then a continuation of the down move away from yesterday's Point of Control.

ES Futures - PreMarket Review 01/22/10

The overnight range is 1115.75 - 1104.75.
Market is below yesterday's close of 1110.50.
The 1070 - 1090 area is a strong support area.

Thursday, January 21, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/21/10

Barney Frank's appearance on CNBC popped the market up to its VWAP Line, but the market then retreated again to the day's low. I suspect that the overseas markets will be weak as well.
The irony is that the trading activities of investment banks is not the cause of our financial problems. The problem started with the politicians pressuring banks to approve risky mortgages for political reasons. That problem has not gone away.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/21/10

OK - so let's not have a narrow range day. The market may be a little nervous about the President's speech on Bank Regulation. The market may be right. The proposed policies may do little to grow the economy, and perhaps a lot in dampening any economic recovery.

ES Futures - Premarket Review 01/21/10

The overnight low is still support at 1130.75 with 1139.25 as resistance. We have had 3 days with above average range. Perhaps we are due for a narrow range day.

Wednesday, January 20, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/20/10

1128 is today's Point of Control. Swing traders may be picking up some bargains as the last week of January is statistically bullish.

The VIX turned bullish just before 1400 ET. As the market tested the VWAP Line, we got a bullish $TICK divergence, and the market traded up from there.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/20/10

The VIX has been in bear territory all morning. Its another one of those - "Don't fade the market" - days.

ES Futures - PreMarket Review 01/20/10

The market is struggling to stay above the 1137.75 support. Another key price is yesterday's Point of Control near 1143.75.

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

ES Futures - End of Day Review 01/19/10

Not a lot of interesting action in the afternoon market. The market traded sideways with a bullish bias. Today's Point of Control is near 1143.75.

ES Futures - Morning Review 01/19/10

I wish that I could say that I knew that the market was going to go straight up, but I would be lying. The market opened just below Friday's Point of Control, but once above it, it just kept going up.

The pre-open pivot highs acted as support once the market traded above them. Lately, the market has been selling off before a holiday, and then buying everything back once the holiday is over.