ES Futures End-of-Day Review 01/04/12

The 15 and 50 period EMA's on the $TICK chart helps to keep me out of trouble - sometimes.

Looking at the ES 1-minute morning session chart above, the $TICK trend as indicated by the moving averages stayed down as the market traded past S1 and S2. We did get a bounce off of S2, but it then traded past this line. The whole time, the $TICK stayed in red or down territory. According to the $TICK trend, there was no reason to go long at S2.

Compare this with the afternoon session, when the market tested S1 on the bullish side. The market changed direction to the upside on a bullish test of S1. This time the $TICK did go into an up trend indication and gave us a 3 point move to the upside.

Today the market did find support near the 12/27/11 - 12/28/11 highs. It finished inside yesterday's range.

Charles

ES Futures End-of-Day Review 01/03/12

It's not often that we get to use R4. Today, R4 provided resistance and R3 provided support. That's pretty much it.

Charles

ES Futures Challenging 10/27/11 High 01/03/12

The ES Futures is trading well beyond R3 and challenging the 10/27/11 high on better than expected manufacturing news from Europe. The market is also anticipating good US manufacturing news as well.

Watch for signs that the market wants to continue its advance after the 0930 ET open, such as the $TICK reaching + 800 in the first half hour to the first hour of trading. For some confirmation, the $TIKI should also exceed + 24. Otherwise, look for breaks past R3 and R2 to test Friday's high.

European Stocks Rise Before US Report
UK Manufacturing Shrinks Less Than Forecast - Demand Also Increases In Germany and China

Charles

Happy New Year 2012

Analyzing the Stock Market and Equity Futures 12/31/11

I like watching the 1 Minute chart of the ES Futures. It helps me judge market strength when it is testing extremes.

$TICK and $TIKI

Yesterday, the market tested the previous day's high just after 1000 ET. A strong move typically involves the $TICK hitting + or - 800 and the $TIKI hitting + or - 24. In this case, as the market tested the previous day's high, the $TICK was well below +800 and the $TIKI was well below +24. A rather weak effort, and the result was a down trend for the rest of the day. There just wasn't any major buying programs in the market to push it higher.

$TRIN

The $TRIN closing at extremes on its daily chart is an interesting study. Sometimes extreme market moves signal a short term exhaustion in its current trending direction. When the $TRIN closes above 2 on an extremely bearish day, the next day may see a rally to the upside. Likewise, when the $TRIN closes below 0.6 on an extremely bullish day, the next day may tumble to the downside a little.

I looked at a small market sample to test this assumption. In this sample, the $TRIN closed above 2.0 - 15 times, and it close below 0.6 - 13 times. When it closed above 2.0, the next day was bullish 60% of the time. When it closed below 0.6, the next day was bearish 54% of the time. Not something that you want to bet the farm on, but something to be aware of when this happens.

The last chart is the Pivot lines for Tuesday, 1/03/12.

Charles

ES Futures End of Year Charts 12/30/11

Charles

ES Futures Pivot Lines For Friday 12/30/11

Charles