Wednesday, July 9, 2008

Not a Good Place to Short



The 1400 ET time period is the beginning of the unwinding of the Energy Market Trades, whose market closes at 1430 ET. It is not uncommon for the ES Futures market to change direction during the 1400 - 1430 ET period as ES - Energy hedging trades come to an end.

In the above chart, the 3,10,16 MACD or 3/10 Oscillator shows a possible change in momentum at 1400 ET as the ES Futures test the previous low pivot.




In addition, this change in momtentum point was also a 62% correction of the latest upward moving swing wave. A point where long position equity traders maybe interested in increasing their long positions.




This 1400 ET point was also located at the 0930 ET Open, which is also another point that may interest long position traders. Notice as the ES Futures was testing the previous pivot low, the $TICK was making a higer low, again indicating a change in short term momentum.




The NYSE Advance - Decline Line as also indicating a possible change in short term momentum by making a higher low at 1400 ET.




Even the Staples / Discretionaries Ratio Indicator was showing a possible change in short term momentum.

In summary, the 1400 ET period yesterday was not a good place to be short.

Charles

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