Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Inta-Day Cycles in a Trending Market





For many years, I have noticed these intra-day cycles, which occur with regular frequency. The cycles typically last about 30 minutes. In a downtrending market such as in the top chart above, the market with trade below a previous pivot low, correct about 50 - 75% of the previous cycle range, and then trade below the last low pivot. As long as the NYSE Advance - Decline line continues to make lower highs and lows, the trend cycle continues. The lunch period typically makes a two hour equilibrium zone. A new cycle usually starts after 1300 ET.
The bottom chart above shows a typical uptrending cycle. Again about 30 minutes in length where the market trades above a previous pivot high, corrects 50 - 75% of the previous cycle range, and then trades above the last pivot high. As long as the NYSE Advance - Decline Line makes higher highs and lows, the trend continues.
Charles

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