Thursday, January 1, 2009

ES Futures End-of-Year Analysis

Generally, a bullish January leads to a bullish year and vice versa. I thought that I would look to see if the first 5 days of a month had any effect on the rest of the month. 7 out of 8 times, when we had a loss in the first five days, the month ended in a loss. 6 out of the 8 times that the first 5 days were a loss, the month experienced a worse point loss.

3 out of the 4 times that the first 5 days were a gain, the month also experienced a gain and a better point gain. The fourth time the month ended with no change.

The above chart is the point gain or loss of the last five days versus the first five days of the following month.
If the premise that large investment institutions accumulate or distribute equities in the last week of the month is true, then we are starting to see accumulation in the last three months of this year.

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