In the past 20 years, excluding 2009, only 9 out of 20 July's have ended the month higher than its open price. Of those 9 gainers, 2 gained more than 20 S&P 500 points, and 5 gained between 10 and 20 points.
The chart above shows the difference between the close of each month and the July close for the 2 years in which its July had more than a 20 point gain. In both 1997 and 2005, August through October closed below the July close. By the end of the year, the S&P 500 gained only between 14 and 16 points from the July close.
Above is the chart for July's that gained between 10 and 20 points. Of these 5 years, only 1995 and 2003 stand out as being different. 2003 is the year that followed the 2000 to 2002 market bubble burst. In both 1995 and 2003, the August through October performance was positive.
The performance of August through October may help determine if 2009 will be like most years and gain only between zero and 16 points by the end of the year, or be more like 1995 or even 2003.
Charles
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