I like looking at Commercial Loan activity by Commercial Banks as an indicator of economic health. This information is obtained from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis's web site.
The chart above shows the Percent Change from 1 Year Ago for both the S&P 500 Index and Commercial Loans, which was down loaded onto a spreadsheet from this web page.
It is interesting to note that during the 2000-2003 bear market, the S&P 500 did not trade above the previous year's level until Commercial Loan's rate of change had stabilized for over a year. If the current Commercial Loan's rate of change is stabilizing, that process has just begun. If the past is any key, it may be a while before the market trades above the previous year's prices.
Charles
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