Thursday, February 14, 2008

February 14, 2008

Relative to the 0930 ET Open, the ten day statistical range of the closest daily range extreme is the Open + / - 6.25 points for the ES Futures. The daily bias, 70% of the time, can be determined if the market trades beyond this range. From the open, the market tested the short side of this range, and remained below the 0930 ET open for the rest of the morning, while Bernanke spoke before the Senate Banking Committee. The bulls gave up after 1100 ET as the market traded to the lower range of the ATR.
The Short bias after 1100 ET was confirmed by the down trending NYSE Advance - Decline line and NYSE Up Vol - Down Vol indicator.





And confirmed by the down trending Cumulative $TICK indicator.






Tomorrow, the Empire State Mfg Survey has a consensus of 5.75, Import and Export Prices has a consensus of 0.5%, Industrial Production has a consensus of 0.1% for Production and 81.4% for Capacity Utilization and Consumer Sentiment has a consensus of 77.0.



Charles



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