Thursday, September 18, 2008

High Volatility Day - 09/18/08

Statistics stated that the probability was high that today would close higher than yesterday's close. However, I was not expecting a +46 point close.

The afternoon presented a rather thin and volatile environment. After 1300 ET, the market jumped more than 16 points in 4 minutes. This type of volatility presents some interesting psychological problems. You do not want to be on the wrong side of this type of market, especially with any large volumes. Liquidity can be a problem.

I have made some changed to the 1 minute chart to help with this type of market. I have colored the ES bars to reflect the trend of the 2 period pivot ((H+L+C)/3) SMA of the $TICK indicator. When the pivot SMA is trending up, the ES bar is green, and red when the pivot SMA is trending down. This helps with timing in a fast market.



First I prefer to see a correction to either the 20 Period EMA or 38 period EMA on the 620 tick chart. Above is an example of some short trades.



For short trades, I then wait for the 2 Period Pivot SMA on the 1 minute $TICK chart to trend down to enter the trade.





The two charts above are examples of Long trades.
I find that this is helping to minimize risks and maximize rewards for short term intra-day trades.
Charles

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