Several Ways of Detecting Short-Term Market Bias

Above we can see a couple of ways to help determine short-term market bias. The first is a simple cross of the 20 and 38 period EMA of the $TICK Pivot ((H+L+C)/3). The second is similar to the Don Miller use of $VIX on a 15 minute chart. Both signaled a long bias in the morning, and a short bias after 1330 ET in the afternoon.




On the 620 tick chart, the bias indication is a simple 20 and 38 period EMA cross of the ES Close. Just after 1000 ET, we had a correction down to the 0930 ET open while the longer term charts were still indicating a long bias. This turned out to be a long opportunity rather than a shorting opportunity. The market trended up to 1100 ET with several normal corrections just below the 38 period EMA.




After 1330 ET, the longer term charts indicated a short bias. On the 620 tick chart just after 1345 ET, the indicator turned green, but this was only a 50% correction in a shorting market. A shorting opportunity rather than a long opportunity. The market remained in a short bias for the rest of the day.

Charles