Saturday, April 19, 2008

Terry Laundry's T Theory

Terry Laundry's T Theory blog discusses in more detail his theory on time cycles. The following discussion is a grossly oversimplification of his theory. Terry uses a volume oscillator, which I have not been able to reproduce as yet. However, the simplified view of the theory still produces some interesting predictions of top and bottom cycles. Basically, the next up cycle should be equal in length as the last bottom cycle, and vice versa. You can look at big T's or a large cycle, or you can look at the smaller cycles within the large one, which are the little T's.

The following discussion uses a 60 Minute Chart of the S&P 500 Index.





The above example shows a down cycle from the end of February to the middle of March, thus predicting the end of the next up cycle to be around April 4. The actual cycle ended the next trading day on 04/07/08.




In the above example, you can see that the up-down cycle Green T and the down-up cycle Red T predicted the end of the cycles within one day's accuracy.

It will be interesting to see if we get an up cycle conclusion around 04/23/08.
It is a nice tool to use to get an idea of when a current short term cycle may conclude.
Charles

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