Sunday, May 17, 2009

PreMarket Monday OutLook 05/17/09



The situation where the difference between the Close and the Previous Day's Close for the Day Session staying between +0.25 and -0.25 Standard Deviations for two days straight has occurred just 10 times in the past two years.



The data in the chart above shows what has happened the following day after the statistical situation described previously. 60% of the time, the market closed below the previous day's close. Also 60% of the time, the Range was below 20 points with the median being 19, the distance between the High - Open and the Open - Low was below 10 points.



The market is still staying above the 872 level, which is a long term support level and near May's open price.



On Friday, both the ES and Energy markets made a new two-day low, but the Financials did not. If the Financials remain strong relative to the broader market and Energy remains weak, Monday's market may prove to be slightly negative, but may not go very far, unless the 872 support level is broken on high volume.

Charles

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